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StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest97l con 60% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by StormWatch »

A well-defined small low pressure system located about 1200 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression
during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest97l con 60% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by StormWatch »

97L

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest97l con 60% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by StormWatch »

97L

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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Villafañe
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2121
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:36 pm

Re: Invest97l con 60% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by Villafañe »

Arlequín wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:03 pm Tremendo el UKMO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 11.4N 41.2W 1011 22
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 12.1N 42.1W 1010 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 12.9N 43.9W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 14.0N 45.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 14.8N 47.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.3N 49.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 15.7N 52.1W 998 45
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 16.4N 54.4W 993 52
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 16.9N 56.7W 986 64
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 17.3N 59.3W 984 69
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 17.4N 61.2W 982 68
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 17.5N 62.9W 977 68
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.9N 64.3W 973 74
Fea es corrida para el noreste del Caribe.
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Villafañe
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2121
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:36 pm

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by Villafañe »

Muchos modelos están alineados al noroeste del Caribe, pero veo que lo acercan más y el UKMET y HWRF lo entran al Caribe.
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Villafañe
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2121
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:36 pm

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by Villafañe »

HWRF Es solo una corrida y no es para alarmar, pero si para que estén pendientes a cualquier cambio.Image
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Villafañe
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2121
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:36 pm

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by Villafañe »

Ya son tres los modelos que acercan al area al 97l, seguimos pendientes. Image
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StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by StormWatch »

BOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Top
fanatica
Invest
Invest
Posts: 118
Joined: Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:02 pm

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by fanatica »

Que!!!

¿Se va a mover un poco más al oeste de lo anticipado?
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hurrizonepr
Depresión Tropical
Depresión Tropical
Posts: 451
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am

Re: Invest97l con 70% y 90% en el Atlantico Central.

Post by hurrizonepr »

fanatica wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:19 pm Que!!!

¿Se va a mover un poco más al oeste de lo anticipado?
Sabemos que cuanto mas tarde en desarrollarse y en cuanto tiempo se fortalezca el alta presion al Norte seran determinantes para su posible cercania al Caribe. Aun hay mucha incertidumbre, veremos si los modelos se alinean y arrojan luz.
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