CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Kirk............. Hi folks!

¿Están ahí mis vidas? ¿Me oyen?

Tarde en la noche el tropico por lo general da mejores senales que en el dia.

Parece que lo que queda de temporada, no solo tendre que acostumbrarme a los Mikados. Ahora aparecen los assemblies, subassemblies, RM, MRO para poner a funcionar la logistica de los modelos de un SC en SAP, ORACLE o alguna de esas plataformas .

No hay que complicarse tanto la vida y mirar lo que entiendo es un ULL en las cercanias de PR a donde se mueven los remanentes de Kirk, que ahora lo suben a 60% en el ultimo TWD de las 2 AM. Lo mismo que le ha pasado a los otros sistemas al acercarse al Caribe, es lo que se espera tambien con Kirk.

Yo hace mas de 4 horas que observo la imagen del Uper Level Water Vapor IR para PR y veo algo interesante en las ultimas horas. Vamos a ver si persiste y los amigos foristas en la manana lo ven. Creo que por ahi esta la clave de lo que pasara cuando llegue este sistema al arco de las Antillas. Interesante que el TWO dice entre otras cosas que los intereses en las Antillas Menores deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Sera por lo mismo que yo estoy viendo?


Por lo pronro esto es lo que dice el TWO de las 2AM del NHC en Miami:

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Subtropical Depression Leslie, located about 1200 miles
west of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite data indicate that the
circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression later
today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday,
additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level
winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near
the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions
of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later
today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side.
However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a
closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves
into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system
does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical
tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.
After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the
central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi"

Saludos Rockstorm y a todos los foristas, durante toda la tarde los remanentes de Kirk se ven mejor organizados y según mi opinión está intentando de cerrar la circulación, me es sospechoso el sistema así que ojo, veremos qué nos dicen a las 8pm o a las 11pm.

8pm

The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little
better organized during the last several hours, however, the
system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance
is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day
or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable
upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in
the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this
disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over
the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a
tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Buenas noches a todos.Como indican , los remanentes de Kirk se ven mejorando mucho en presentacion.No me seria raro que a las 11pm sea clasificado nuevamemte.

Yo tambien lo veo compacto, ya esta noche lo clasifican de nuevo.

Villafañe wrote: ↑Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:15 pm Saludos Rockstorm y a todos los foristas, durante toda la tarde los remanentes de Kirk se ven mejor organizados y según mi opinión está intentando de cerrar la circulación, me es sospechoso el sistema así que ojo, veremos qué nos dicen a las 8pm o a las 11pm.

Saludos Villafane y demas foristas:

Si eso era parte de lo que estaba viendo anoche. Pero lo mas importante era el TUTT sobre nosotros que anoche empezo a retroceder al oeste y con ese movimiento, los "shear" se alejaron algo al oeste. Estaba interesante, pues mientras retrocedia, mejor ambiente se veia para Kirk. No obstante, parece que ya no se mueve tan rapido como anoche.

En el AFD del NWS en Carolina lo mencionaron esta manana:

...Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1107 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

.UPDATE...Tutt low and associated mid to upper level trough will
continue to retrograde and cross the region through the end of the
work week...

Seria interesante si retrocede mas rapido de lo previsto hoy o manana.

Como no esta contemplado una pausa en el "shear" y creo que ningun modelo intensifica el sistema, no creo que Kirk tenga muchos seguidores hoy.

Tiene un ventana de 24 horas más o menos para aprovechar la buena temperatura oceánica. Luego el shear sube a 26 y superando los 30 nudos. Veremos.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 624,10.876

Parece que está intentando y está a punto de cerrar esa circulación, si no es que ya lo logró.



Adicionalmente, la convección y tronadas alrededor del centro la tiene, creo que ya pronto tendremos a Kirk de regreso