Huracán María

[Arlequín]

A donde se fueron los demas ???
mientras..

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Yo dudo muchisimo que sostenga esa trayectoria sin cambios hasta el Miercoles

Solo mi opinion

Yo tambien estoy algo esceptico con la trayectoria e intensidad.

La veo aun pasando al sur y con menos intensidad. Pero como dije en mi unico post que quedo como por El kilometro 24, no descartado un RI.

De todo lo que he leido en los posts, no he visto por que las mayoria de los modelos con sus Mikados y Orbes mantienen un patron sobre PR o al sur y el NHC ha insistido desde ayer en un movimiento mas al Norte y categoria 3. No he leido que alguien comente sobre esto.

No se, pero es de las pocas veces que estoy de buenas con los modelos de Mikados y Orbes.

Primero porque la veo moviendose como en varios modelos, mas al sur que la oficial y en intensidad estoy con el GFS el cual no creo que sea tan malo en estimar intensidad.

Dejando claro que esto es mi opinion, no lo oficial.

Lo oficial, que es lo que cuenta, es trayectoria sobre PR como categoria 3.

Mi consejo es no dejar de monitorear el sistema las personas de las Antillas, PR y RD.

Tampoco me gusta la trayectoria estimada por Guadalupe. Ya sabemos lo que eso significa la mayor parte de las veces.

Olvide escribir, que el NHC ha hecho un buen trabajo con los sistemas anteriores en cuanto a trayectoria e intensidad y me ha gustado mucho leer cuando dicen que no le convencen los resultados de algunos modelos inclusive llamandolos en algun momento outliers.

[Arlequín]

Esta Boya esta en los 14.559 N 53.073 W y el sistema se encuentra en los 12.3°N 53.1°W significa que la boya esta al norte de Maria mostrando rafagas de mas de 30 nudos

[StormWatch]

Wepaaaaa! Un, dos, tres, ....

[StormWatch]

Tropical Storm #Maria Advisory 3: Maria Moving Westward Toward the Lesser Antilles. New Hurricane Watches Issued. go.usa.gov/W3H

[Arlequín]

11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16
Location: 12.5°N 53.7°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[mary]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Maria has become a little better organized this evening, with
satellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area
near the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind
core. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain about 45 kt.

The longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite
imagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the
right. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected
to gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would
allow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease
in forward speed during the next five days. The track guidance is
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only
slightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial
location. The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the
Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about
120 h.

Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture,
light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the
next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in
calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major
hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility,
and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than
currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,
and additional watches will likely be issued on Sunday.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 12.5N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 13.1N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 13.9N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 14.6N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 15.3N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 18.0N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...COAST OF PUERTO RICO
120H 22/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[StormWatch]

CycloforumsPR

Tormenta María mejora su organización, reduce su velocidad a 16 mph y el CNH advierte que podría intensificarse más de lo expuesto a las 11pm

[Arlequín]

Ligeramente mas al sur

[digital77]

Irma? Jeje