CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Pienso que el modelo que esta corriendo bien el sistema es el GFS . Dejandome llevar por como inician las corridas. Euro y cmc inician un sistema debil.

Aun que en comparacion con la de ayer esta mas al oeste

Yo espero q suba....
Ansioso por ver q trae el NHC, lo cual es una caja de PANDORA! Que ellos ven q nosotros ni los modelos ven?

Veteeeeeeeeee, con una platanera leve y más NA’

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Comienzo a ver corazones desilusionados. diganlooooo NEXT!!!.... temporada?

Yesssss!

Subirá según el GFS

120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

vaguada wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:34 pm Comienzo a ver corazones desilusionados. diganlooooo NEXT!!!.... temporada?

No todavia no !!
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

Diantre como es posible que en 24 hrs ya sea categoría 3?

Arlequín wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:43 pm

vaguada wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:34 pm Comienzo a ver corazones desilusionados. diganlooooo NEXT!!!.... temporada?

No todavia no !!
I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

interesante lo q dice NHC!! no bajen la guardia