CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

boya 41040 ...

NDBC
Location: 14.516N 53.024W
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2016 03:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (74°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Dew Point: 76.5 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

vamos a ver q dicen a las 2 am el modelo HWRF , a 54 horas la tiene como posible td o tormenta débil ..

huracan_1975 wrote:vamos a ver q dicen a las 2 am el modelo HWRF , a 54 horas la tiene como posible td o tormenta débil ..

Lo inicia en la 13n y yo no veo el centro hay, ya no se que pensar.

HWRF 00Z no Lo ve bien vamos a esperar a la proxima corrida.

Se nos esta regando la ondita...anoche se veia mucho mejor, mucho mejor ambiente, ahora hay una masa de aire seco al sur, para no dejar...al sur!__La ITCZ se esfumo en el aire, no aparece ni en los mapas, la han dejado sola a merced de los elementos__Se ha expandido, eso es peligroso, la circulacion es ahora mucho mas amplia, lo mismo que la vorticidad, pero es mas debil, si no se "recoge" y se compacta, no va a poder ser, al menos por ahora.
Anoche parecia mas "ciclon", hoy es mas "onda".

De todas maneras..sigue generando tronadas y la presion que era 1010 ahora es 1009mbs__Despues de la 53W es que los mapas senalan un incremento de la SST.
Si Hermine sigue patinando y no avanza en el atlantico al norte, lo que sea que salga de esto, se va a mantener al sur, no parece haber de momento otro factor que debilite la presion.

Ultimadamente, hay que coger demasiado lucha para traer un trapo e ciclon a nuestra area.

Villafañe wrote:

huracan_1975 wrote:vamos a ver q dicen a las 2 am el modelo HWRF , a 54 horas la tiene como posible td o tormenta débil ..

Lo inicia en la 13n y yo no veo el centro hay, ya no se que pensar.

El ´´centro´´ parece estar cerca de los 14n

ese vuelo de reconocimiento saldrá hoy o no ?

boya 41NTO cercana al invest ... presión de 1008 mlb ..

Conditions at 41NT0 as of
0800 GMT on 09/03/2016:

Note: This report is more than two hours old
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 21.4 kts

SUBE 20/ 30 % 8AM...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hermine, located near the North Carolina Outer Banks, and has
issued its last advisory on Gaston, which has become a post-tropical
cyclone to the northeast of the Azores.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased
since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, and any development of this system should
be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. This
disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today
through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent