CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

e 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 am EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave located about 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves generally westward at about
20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to
reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Si esto pasará

No quiero ni imaginármelo, con el daño de inundación que ha hecho Fred en Santo Domingo y esto detrás.

Good morning everyone, seeing 95L today, based on satellite, it appears that the system is has some easterly shear, which you can tell how the showers and thunderstorms activity remained disorganized, however this could change for a couple of days as the system nears west it could encounter low shear environment, lots have to depend right now how the relative humidity is right now. For now, this is something to watch as some models still are not uptrending this except the HMON and ECWMF, but they both showed a similar track of Fred, which by then, either Puerto Rico or Dominican Republic or maybe both could be affected, well wait for further new updates on models. Anyways, have a great day.

I agree with you, JohnMT, the figure looks sheared in the satellite images. I think the only chance to try to do something is when the Antilles takes hold. Where it is right now it has no environment to support great development.

Recuerden estimados que estamos en Agosto y en cualquier momento cambia la ciclogenesis.

Sube a 60% y 70%. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located about 105 miles west of Great Inagua,
Bahamas.

1. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Silvio29 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:24 pm Recuerden estimados que estamos en Agosto y en cualquier momento cambia la ciclogenesis.

Eso es así y para mi tiene buenas oportunidades que logre desarrollarse. Veremos

El NHC aumenta sus probabilidades, otra posible Fred más fuerte con el nombre de Grace? Veremos