CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Más cerca al Sur de PR

StormWatch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:15 am Más cerca al Sur de PR

Imagino que ese pronóstico ya no será por la 15n en el de las 5 am
O tal vez quieran esperar más corridas

Arlequín wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:18 am

StormWatch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:15 am Más cerca al Sur de PR

Imagino que ese pronóstico ya no será por la 15n en el de las 5 am
O tal vez quieran esperar más corridas

Yo entiendo que si. Tal vez esperen al boletín de las 11am

Lo que ha salido en los diferentes informes del NHC en Miami no ha traido nada significativo hasta ahora. Para no repetir lo mismo, lo resumo en lo siguiente:

Tiny: Nos conviene si la trayectoria sigue al sur pues nos escapamos del radio de sus vientos. Malo si en algun momento inicia un movimiento west-northwest y eventualmente northwest. Lo digo porque estos sistemas pequenos, como ha salido en los informes de el NHC son sensitivos a RI pero tambien a eventos como el "shear". Si antes de llegar a la 60 W se intensifica mas de lo previsto; el "shear" aunque la afectaria si continua pequena, llegaria al sur-sureste de PR con mas energia.

"Shear": Habia comentado que los expertos del NHC seguian insistiendo en el "shear" y ya por fin aparecio mas informacion en el ultimo TWD de las 12PM. :Llevan tiempo con lo mismo, ellos sabran por que insisten, son los expertos. Por fin vimos el mapa de pronostico del"shear" en la pagina 31 de este tema que coloco el companero Arlequin. Pero sigue siendo una prediccion y eso esta por verse. Sigo pensando que 30 nudos es demasiado pero no imposible.

Mencionan el efecto "poleward", por eso me atrevi a pronosticar antier ( es lo unico que me arriesgue a decir kilometros de mensajes atras) que la veia al menos en la 16.5 grados de latitud al llegar al sureste de PR. Eso esta por verse.

Discusion: Me gusta en lenguaje que estan usando. Comentan sobre intensidad y trayectoria explicando por que estan o no de acuerdo con los resultados de los modelos, como entiendo que debe ser. Es lo que siempre comento acerca de que los modelos corren con datos suministrados por ellos y les toca a ellos interpretar sus resultados como estan haciendo y con detalles. Por ejemplo: Los datos que le colocan a las variables de los modelos antes de correrlos incluye informacion de boyas y los famosos globos no obstante; mucha de esa informacion es estimada a traves de satelite y otros medios. Por eso los modelos mejoran cuando se le suministran datos del avion de reconocimiento. Algo que no ha ocurrido aun. De hecho, hasta la ubicacion e intensidad entiendo que es estimada. La real es cuando el caza los visita.

En fin que seguimos igual que hace dos dias con la misma incertidumbre en trayectoria e intensidad y como dije hace dos dias, esto parece se decide en los ultimos 5 minutos del juego.

Dejo el enlace de un informe que se preparo para el Huracan Beluah en 1967, creditos a WU:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... 196702.pdf

Lean en especial los boletines que para ese entoces emitio la oficina del NWS en SJ cuando estaba en San Juam (Puerta de Tierra) y las coordenadas del sistema cuando inicio un movimiento west-northwest, no descartado aun con Isaac.

En el TWD de las 5 AM, del NHC, no veo ningun cambio significativo. Me recuerda una cancion de los 90's que decia: "... Que sera, que sera, que sera, que pregunto y nadie sabe la verdad, siete son..."


Aqui el ultimo TWD de las 5 AM del NHC en Miami:

"Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Isaac has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The small hurricane continues to have a central dense overcast
feature with some fragmented bands to the south of the center. The
Dvorak classifications remain 4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.

Isaac is moving westward at 11 kt. The models remain in poor
agreement this cycle as they are split into two camps. The UKMET,
HWRF, and a few other models show Isaac recurving near or to the
east of the Lesser Antilles toward a developing trough over the
central Atlantic. Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF have been very
consistent in showing a due westward motion across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean as the cyclone moves on the south
side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast
continues to favor the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models,
and this forecast is near a blend of those aids. It should be
noted, however, that confidence in this track forecast is low given
the model spread.

The intensity forecast is also quite uncertain. One of the complex
factors is Isaac's compact size as small hurricanes like this one
are more prone to quick intensity changes, both up and down. In
addition, the intensity guidance is in poor agreement as solutions
range from steady weakening from this point onward to the HWRF that
shows Isaac becoming a major hurricane. Given that the wind shear
is expected to remain less than 10 kt for another day or two,
strengthening is forecast during that time period. After that,
however, an increase in shear first from a trough over the central
Atlantic and later from the outflow from Florence should result in
weakening when the system moves across the Lesser Antilles and into
the Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from the previous one and lies above the model consensus in the
short term, but below it at the later forecast times. This
forecast is in best agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is
higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening
when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac
during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 42.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi"

720
WTNT34 KNHC 100840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 42.7W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 42.7 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is forecast through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as
Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Todo CONTINÚA igual desde el boletín de las 5pm de ayer.

789
WTNT34 KNHC 101435
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 43.9W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Isaac.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Isaac is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a
slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as
Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Sin ningún cambio en la corrida de las 11:00am.

Me escuchannnnnnn?? Me oyennnnnn?