CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Ahi han nacido pocos, muy pocos(si alguno) por debajo de la 9N al este de la 25W?

De momento no parece haber impedimento para que siga progresando.

La ruta es fea...feisima!
Pero el camino es largo y ya los mapas auguran, más adelante, un sendero bastante escabroso para este capitán.

Los ensembles del GFS muestran a Kirk doblando a aguas abiertas sin entrar al caribe

Parece que el Capitan Kirk, se va a ir quedando sin nave y sin Spock Cuando llegue a los 55 grados.

Silvio29 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:25 pm Parece que el Capitan Kirk, se va a ir quedando sin nave y sin Spock Cuando llegue a los 55 grados.

Todo apunta a que si porque los modelos muestran una embestida del shear... ahora bien.. hay que ver como responde esta tormenta a esa cortante ademas que transitara por aguas mas calientes a medida que se acerque a las Antillas

Bueno aquí la composición de Kirk

EURO
a 48h


a 96h

El Euro la lleva más al Sur

Laniña2016 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:18 pm El Euro la lleva más al Sur

Asi es..en cuanto a los ensembles del EURO lo muestran un poco mas fuerte en esta corrida pero aun asi lo debilitan pasando por el caribe

The convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with
the majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center. Most of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in
the 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36
h or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for
gradual strengthening. However, there is a possibility that
entrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to
the north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently
forecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity
guidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast
strengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which
forecast little additional strengthening. The intensity forecast
leans toward the dynamical models during that period. After 72 h,
Kirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually
weaken. The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the
previous forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN.

The initial motion is now 290/13. The subtropical ridge to the
north of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next
72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt. Later in the
forecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the
ridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The new
forecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is
shifted a little to the north of the previous track. However, it
continues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 8.6N 24.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

El pronóstico de SHIPS para el shear y SST refleja cambios entre las 12z del sábado y 00 de domingo.

SHIPS 12z sábado

SHIPS 00z domingo