CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

cg1672 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:29 pm https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 9407874048

Not confirmed there's an eye. To me, it seems like the storm could be developing one. But the eye-like feature could be subsidence from a neighboring vortical hot tower.

LOL Y John Morales le contesta:

What are you talking about!? Tell me how that could even be remotely possible.

Pop corn

Michael Ventrice escribió

The evolution of convection in Tropical Depression #Karen has been interesting. It looked to me that this storm was trying to push out an eye. Recon does not support this. It's likely mesoscale features fooling my aging eyes. Regardless, convection looks to be flourishing tonight/quote]
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/s ... 1845536771

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC

...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS

-------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains.
NEXT ADVISORY
------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

Entiendo que según la discusión de las 11 y la gráfica entra como tormenta de 40 millas a territorio borincano.

Pronostico de q sea nuevamente tormenta mañana...

Interesante no obstante no cambia el panorama de 2 a 4 pulgadas de lluvia hasta 8 pulgadas máximo.

Ahora es de Guayama a Toa Baja:

Vía CycloforumPR

La nueva trayectoria prácticamente es una línea vertical de Sur a Norte, pasando el centro de Karen al Oeste de Guayama y saliendo entre San Juan y Dorado; claro, si se materializa esta proyección. Karen se intensificaría a tormenta de 40 mph, según el boletín de las 11 PM.



Mi slogan, Karen nos va PARTIR de SUR a NORTE!

Pero en el boletin no explicaron el pq ahora retomaría fuerza de Tormenta antes de llegar a PR??

Fuerte TEMBLOR! WOWWWWWW