5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 26
Location: 11.9°N 56.4°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Huracán Dorian.
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
000
WTNT35 KNHC 260847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019
...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and
and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica
through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
in Barbados and the Windward Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT35 KNHC 260847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019
...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and
and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica
through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
in Barbados and the Windward Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Un leve ajuste a la derecha....
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
UKMET 00z ensembles
Aquí estamos en el mismo medio...
Aquí estamos en el mismo medio...
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Hay Santo!!! Ustedes se imaginan ..
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Mi humilde opinión amigos, es que este sistema no va a recurvar totalmente si no que seguirá un 285 o un 290, eso lo llevará más o menos al canal de la mona.
Espero sus comentarios.
Espero sus comentarios.
-
cicloncuba
- Invest
- Posts: 183
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 2:50 pm
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Buenos días amigos. Lo q me extraña es q a esta hora todavía mantiene un W y mientras no gire su rumbo las trayectorias cambiaran. Primero dijeron q el domingo iría WNW y ya hoy es lunes 6:30 y sigue con W. Veremos q pasa.
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Dorian
Aumentando en tamaño. Ya no es tiny!
Aumentando en tamaño. Ya no es tiny!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Tormenta Tropical Dorian
Por lo que veo en el boletín de las 11pm ayer la trayectoria ponía a Dorian su punto más cercano a PR de martes a miércoles, ya en este boletín de trayectoria lo pone en su punto más cercano a PR de miércoles a jueves. Esto se de debe a que ha bajado su movimiento de traslación???O el NHC entiende que bajará la velocidad más adelante??? Esto tendrá que ver con con cuan cercano esté el sistema a PR?