Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:42 am
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Huracán Jose
https://huracanespr.net/cycloforums/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3342440
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Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:44 am
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:46 am
PEro aquí, una hora mas tarde (1400) se ve que aunque están Fuertes, si hay un buen ángulo hacia el Noroeste. Mi opinion que nada tiene que ver con lo official, es que debe seguir al ONO según trazado por NHC.
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:48 am
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:50 am
Yo espero q no fallen pq los últimos frames tiene unos jog bien marcados. Va demasiado rápido casi 20mph
Ese movimiento de traslación tal vez NO lo esperaban.
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:51 am
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:53 am
Bueno, CIMS no ha updated el DML para Jose (en el close up de arriba), y aún tiene la capa de 300-850, que es para 950-960 MB.
La correcta para 942 MB es esta, que suiere en mi inexperta opinión y no en la opinión experta del NHC del un poco mas de trayectoria al oeste:
La correcta para 942 MB es esta, que suiere en mi inexperta opinión y no en la opinión experta del NHC del un poco mas de trayectoria al oeste:
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:58 am
Sigue su ruta por debajo del punto a ver cuanto dura asi 
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:59 am
interesanteRickster wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:53 am Bueno, CIMS no ha updated el DML para Jose (en el close up de arriba), y aún tiene la capa de 300-850, que es para 950-960 MB.
La correcta para 942 MB es esta, que suiere en mi inexperta opinión y no en la opinión experta del NHC del un poco mas de trayectoria al oeste:
Re: Huracán Jose - Categoria 3
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:59 am
000
WTNT32 KNHC 081452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will
pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after
that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is
942 mb (27.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the
northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch
area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
WTNT32 KNHC 081452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will
pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after
that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is
942 mb (27.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the
northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch
area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky