CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Vieneeee boricuaaaaaa....!!!

CarlosP wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:13 pm

Arlequín wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:10 pm

CarlosP wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:06 pm Sobre ese movimiento al sur, el termino se me fue de la mente totalmente, pero mas o menos es "movimiento tricloidal" o "thricloidal movement" o algo por esa linea. Se me olvido Basicamente el ojo esta rebotando dentro del propio giro... o algo por esa linea. No estoy 100% certero que sea, pero por esa linea va. Por eso el ojo parace rebotar dentro de sus paredes. Intentare buscar mejor termino o el correcto pero por ahi vamos

cicloidal ??

Aja! Eso mismo (o cerca... leer el post de Rickster). Busca el termino "cicloidal hurricane" o esto: https://books.google.com.pr/books?id=Ua ... oQ6AEIPjAH

Lo habia leido hace tiempo en un libro que lei; ese movimiento dentro del mismo ojo. Tengo dudas honestamente si esta es la aplicación correcta del termino, fue algo que van años que lei.

Rickster wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:13 pm

CarlosP wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:06 pm Sobre ese movimiento al sur, el termino se me fue de la mente totalmente, pero mas o menos es "movimiento tricloidal" o "thricloidal movement" o algo por esa linea. Se me olvido Basicamente el ojo esta rebotando dentro del propio giro... o algo por esa linea. No estoy 100% certero que sea, pero por esa linea va. Por eso el ojo parace rebotar dentro de sus paredes. Intentare buscar mejor termino o el correcto pero por ahi vamos

Esto lo escribió Chris, el dueño del site Torpical Atlantic:



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-NHC-1988-22.pdf

Gracias Rickster, de eso exactamente estoy hablando.

Las dos Paredes del ojo chocan una contra la otra. Que crees?

Ese ojo se ve cada vez mas grande

Obi-Wan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:35 pm

hurricanetrack wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:17 pm Saludos!

Esto es increiblemente dependiente de cosas tan pequenas. Es increible como el futuro de un pais, depende de solo un pequeno "brinco" al norte al sur. Asi esta Irma con las Sotavento y nosotros. Todo movimiento de ahora en adelante es clave.

HurricaneTrack, muchas personas preguntan cuando emitirian un aviso de tormenta y/o de huracan para PR. Que pudieras abundar al respecto?

Pues si uno se deja llevar mas o menos cuando los vientos de tormenta deben de afectar a PR..entiendo que lo mas tarde que se puede esperar para emitirlo es 24 horas antes que se sientan. Asi que si partimos de la premisa que los vientos comenzarian a las 11am del miercoles...manana a las 11am,

Que clase de mostro tenemos al este!!!!

La gente estará tomando esto en serio?

"NOAA-AOC"

Creo q las próximas corridas nos vamos a enterar de algo bueno o NO?

Lean este tuit!

NWS San Juan

Ráfagas miércoles pm:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN