CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Se ha estado moviendo mas al norte de lo proyectado... incluso en el ultimo frame se ve que pasara al norte del siguiente punto....cuando hay sistema no hay ruta y cuando hay ruta no hay sistema.... eso es una regla en estos ultimos años

Asi q todos a esperar sobre 30 años para ver otro Georges.......Para el 2050

INFO ON: KARL

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Log
--------------------------------
Name: Tropical Storm KARL
Advisory (in MPH) Direction of Pressure
Number Date/Time Position Speed Gust Movement (MPH) (in mb) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 14/1500Z 17.0N/25.0W 35 45 WNW 14 1009 TropDp
2 14/2100Z 17.4N/26.5W 35 45 WNW 15 1009 TropDp
3 15/0300Z 17.6N/27.5W 35 45 W 14 1009 TropDp
4 15/0900Z 17.6N/29.3W 35 45 W 16 1009 TropDp
5 15/1500Z 17.7N/30.4W 35 45 W 13 1009 TropDp
6 15/2100Z 18.8N/31.4W 35 45 W 13 1008 TropDp
7 16/0300Z 17.9N/32.5W 45 60 W 14 1005 TropSt
8 16/0900Z 18.3N/33.4W 45 60 W 13 1005 TropSt

000
WTNT32 KNHC 161504
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

...LITTLE CHANGE WITH KARL WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 34.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1810 MI...2910 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 34.3 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-
southwestward motion is possible Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily on the northeast side of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTNT42 KNHC 161451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Karl remains a sheared tropical cyclone this morning with all
of its deep convection in the northeastern quadrant due to shear
related to its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough. The
initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt for this advisory, a compromise
between lower Dvorak estimates and higher, but noisy, scatterometer
values. Vertical shear is expected to decrease in about 36 hours,
and, despite a somewhat dry environment, warming sea surface
temperatures should allow for at least gradual strengthening. The
intensity models continue to trend higher at the end of the
forecast period, and the official forecast follows this trend. This
forecast is remains close to the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The center of Karl has become a little distorted due to the shear
and convection, but it still seems to be moving about 280/11.
Karl is forecast to turn more to the west and south-of-west this
weekend as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the
cyclone. However, the current interaction of Karl with the mid- to
upper-level trough has not been well forecast, and Karl probably
will not get as far to the south as expected yesterday. In a few
days, the storm should move to the west-northwest and eventually
more to northwest around day 5 as it reaches the edge of the ridge.
The new forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, plus
their respective ensemble means, ending up a little north of the
previous NHC prediction at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.5N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.7N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 18.3N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 20.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

La tormenta tropical #Karl pasaría a no menos de 500 millas de distancia de Puerto Rico
Les dije a 600 millas...falle por 100