Laniña2016 wrote:Gracias Rock
Laniña, gracias por tu mensaje.
Yo estoy mas en el analisis matematico y/o estadistico. Por eso "posteo" los asuntos que mas llaman la atencion en terminos de incertidumbre y variaciones.
Lo bueno de esta pagina, es que los demas companeros traen mucha informacion que es muy util para todos y en conjunto hace que la suma de todas esas aportaciones generen en un buen resultado.
Por eso me gusta el foro, pues aqui es raro que se escape algo.
Y de ese analisis que hago resulta que la incertidumbre que acompana este sistema me preocupa. A mi entender, esto esta tan dificil que aun ni siquiera se sabe cuan cerca pase de Haiti o Jamaica (hacia un lado o el otro). Despues de ahi las Bahamas. Jamaica y Haiti son las areas de mayor peligro ahora. A eso hay que sumarle que no esta claro aun, despues que el sistema esté al norte de La Espanola, cuan cerca pudiera estar de la costa este de los Estados del este. Los residentes de Florida, en especial deben monitorear este sistema. Si tu miras los distintos modelos, unos lo ponen muy cerca de Florida, otros mas lejos. Tambien la RD y hasta PR deben estar pendientes a los ultimos informes, pero en especial RD. Esas lluvias que se mueven hacia RD y no muy lejos de PR, pueden ser un problema serio de inundaciones y mas con lo lento que se estaria moviendo el sistema. Esto si el sistema se mueve mas al norte que NW. La incertidumbre es tal, que aun ni para PR esta claro el efecto en la lluvia. Depende tambien de la trayectoria de Mathews. Abajo esta la ultima discusion del la oficina local del NWS en Carolina.
"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
113 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over northwest Atlantic will drift
eastward across the Central Atlantic over the next few days as
Major Hurricane Matthew moves northward into the Western
Atlantic. As a result, easterly winds will become from the
southeast early in the week as Matthew moves across the Windward
Passage and Bahamas. Southerly flow will favor the advection of
showers and thunderstorms over the islands Monday and Tuesday.
Moisture will likely decrease across the local region by midweek
when Matthew moves further away from the Greater Antilles.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated a large area of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters this afternoon. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms
are still expected to develop across western and interior sections
of Puerto Rico late this afternoon associated with the lingering
moisture behind major Hurricane Matthew.
Major hurricane Matthew, currently about 350 miles SSW of Port Au
Prince Haiti, is expected to move mostly north tonight and Sunday.
As this happens the local low level wind flow will become more
from the south southeast in association with the broad cyclonic
circulation of Matthew. A humid southerly wind flow induced by
Matthew will bring abundant deep tropical moisture across the
forecast area starting on Monday and continuing until the middle
of the week. A slight shift more to the right of the projected
path of Matthew will bring more moisture influx across the local
islands Monday and Tuesday. Evaluated the possibility of
a Flash flood watch for all Puerto Rico as moisture associated
with Matthew will spread across the local area tonight and
continuing into Tuesday. However, latest model guidance suggests
a lull in activity overnight and early Monday with most of the
shower activity remaining west and southwest of the area.
Therefore...will hold off for now the Flash Flood watch and will
continue to monitor the situation to see how things unfold.
The GFS model guidance suggests PWAT values of around 2.00 inches
early Monday increasing to around 2.30 inches on Monday afternoon
and Monday night, decreasing to around 2.00 by Tuesday. This
values of PWAT will favor the advection of some showers and
thunderstorms from the Caribbean Waters across the region both
days. Conditions are expected to improve by mid week".