Huracán Matthew

[megadicto]

40" de lluvia es soberana exageracion.

esperemos....pero moviendose asi de lento no hace difrencia si son 30 o 40

[Dante]

40" de lluvia es soberana exageracion.

esperemos....pero moviendose asi de lento no hace difrencia si son 30 o 40

A eso sumale mas de 12hrs de vientos a 150 mph es algo catastrofico.

[StormWatch]

Latest 24hr

[Vigilante]

Dios SANTO!
Lo q se espera de lluvia más los vientos! No se q DECIR!

Saludos StormWatch, ¿Podrías compartir el link el link de esa gráfica? Entre a la página del WPC pero no la he podido localizar.

[CRASH]

Los modelos pronosticaron muy bien este sistema, intensidad y ruta (un poco más allá o un poco mas acá)

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Cuando se lee el ultimo TWD de las 11 AM del NHC, tengo que concluir que el pronostico esta muy complicado de hacer. En azul esta lo que mas me llamo la atencion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

The eye of Matthew has become obscured on visible satellite images,
which is often an indication of weakening. Microwave images showed
a distinct dry slot over the southwestern and western portions of
the circulation. Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated the northeastern eyewall, the strongest
part of the circulation, and found that the winds had decreased
somewhat from earlier this morning. The intensity is set to 120 kt
for this advisory. The vertical shear is not forecast to become
much stronger while Matthew is in the Caribbean, so the hurricane
should remain near category 4 status for the next 36-48 hours. Once
Matthew moves into the Atlantic, some increase in shear along with
a decrease in oceanic heat content should result in a little
weakening. However, there is significant uncertainty in the 3-5 day
forecast intensities.

After a northwestward motion, the center has meandered westward
over the past few hours. Matthew is expected to turn northward and
move between a mid-level ridge to the east and a weak trough over
the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Later in the forecast
period, the global models show a slight building of a ridge to the
northeast of Matthew which would induce a turn toward the left in
3-5 days. The timing and magnitude of this turn is still uncertain
however. Looking at the better-performing models, the track
guidance suite is bracketed by the GFS model on the left and the
HWRF model on the right. The official forecast is slightly west of
the multi-model consensus and very similar to the previous NHC
track.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.9N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.1N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.7N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 23.2N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch"

Esto de traduce en que hay varias cosas con este sistema dificil de explicar, que no hay mucha certeza con el pronostico en cuanto a la trayectoria ni a la intensidad. Parece que su trayectoria depende de otras variables climaticas de las cuales tampoco se sabe finalmente cómo se comportaran. Dificil el trabajo para el NHC. No obstante, aunque no he repetido lo mismo que hice en Hurricane University con Karl, me parece que la trayectoria estimada por el NHC ha sido muy buena. Un estimado de ojo me lleva a concluir que la trayectoria estimada ha salido casi perfecta y las variaciones no creo que han pasado de 30 millas. Muy buen trabajo, condiderando que no hay predicciones perfectas y estamos ante un sistema muy dificil de predecir. Note en azul tambien, que los modelos, aun los mas populares, no han estan "alineados" por lo que en el NHC han tenido tambien que trabajar con diferentes escenarios que dan los modelos de trayectoria.

[Laniña2016]

Gracias Rock

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Gracias Rock

Laniña, gracias por tu mensaje.

Yo estoy mas en el analisis matematico y/o estadistico. Por eso "posteo" los asuntos que mas llaman la atencion en terminos de incertidumbre y variaciones.

Lo bueno de esta pagina, es que los demas companeros traen mucha informacion que es muy util para todos y en conjunto hace que la suma de todas esas aportaciones generen en un buen resultado. Por eso me gusta el foro, pues aqui es raro que se escape algo.

Y de ese analisis que hago resulta que la incertidumbre que acompana este sistema me preocupa. A mi entender, esto esta tan dificil que aun ni siquiera se sabe cuan cerca pase de Haiti o Jamaica (hacia un lado o el otro). Despues de ahi las Bahamas. Jamaica y Haiti son las areas de mayor peligro ahora. A eso hay que sumarle que no esta claro aun, despues que el sistema esté al norte de La Espanola, cuan cerca pudiera estar de la costa este de los Estados del este. Los residentes de Florida, en especial deben monitorear este sistema. Si tu miras los distintos modelos, unos lo ponen muy cerca de Florida, otros mas lejos. Tambien la RD y hasta PR deben estar pendientes a los ultimos informes, pero en especial RD. Esas lluvias que se mueven hacia RD y no muy lejos de PR, pueden ser un problema serio de inundaciones y mas con lo lento que se estaria moviendo el sistema. Esto si el sistema se mueve mas al norte que NW. La incertidumbre es tal, que aun ni para PR esta claro el efecto en la lluvia. Depende tambien de la trayectoria de Mathews. Abajo esta la ultima discusion del la oficina local del NWS en Carolina.

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
113 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over northwest Atlantic will drift
eastward across the Central Atlantic over the next few days as
Major Hurricane Matthew moves northward into the Western
Atlantic. As a result, easterly winds will become from the
southeast early in the week as Matthew moves across the Windward
Passage and Bahamas. Southerly flow will favor the advection of
showers and thunderstorms over the islands Monday and Tuesday.
Moisture will likely decrease across the local region by midweek
when Matthew moves further away from the Greater Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated a large area of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters this afternoon. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms
are still expected to develop across western and interior sections
of Puerto Rico late this afternoon associated with the lingering
moisture behind major Hurricane Matthew.

Major hurricane Matthew, currently about 350 miles SSW of Port Au
Prince Haiti, is expected to move mostly north tonight and Sunday.
As this happens the local low level wind flow will become more
from the south southeast in association with the broad cyclonic
circulation of Matthew. A humid southerly wind flow induced by
Matthew will bring abundant deep tropical moisture across the
forecast area starting on Monday and continuing until the middle
of the week. A slight shift more to the right of the projected
path of Matthew will bring more moisture influx across the local
islands Monday and Tuesday. Evaluated the possibility of
a Flash flood watch for all Puerto Rico as moisture associated
with Matthew will spread across the local area tonight and
continuing into Tuesday. However, latest model guidance suggests
a lull in activity overnight and early Monday with most of the
shower activity remaining west and southwest of the area.
Therefore...will hold off for now the Flash Flood watch and will
continue to monitor the situation to see how things unfold.

The GFS model guidance suggests PWAT values of around 2.00 inches
early Monday increasing to around 2.30 inches on Monday afternoon
and Monday night, decreasing to around 2.00 by Tuesday. This
values of PWAT will favor the advection of some showers and
thunderstorms from the Caribbean Waters across the region both
days. Conditions are expected to improve by mid week".

[boleco]

Aqui esta bien nublado

[hurrizonepr]

Esa zona de conveccion al ENE del ojo de Matthew luce extremadamente intensa y persistente . Tambien el Huracan esta ""retrasado"en sus proyecciones.A medida que este retraso se haga patente, su ruta futura rut debe irse ajustando, pues las variables que inciden en el sistema no necesariemente seran las mismas de cuando los modelos trazaron proyeccion. Es solo opinion , seguimos observando....