Huracán Matthew
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3741
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Huracán Matthew
Yo creo q Florida sera azotado por Matthew!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Huracán Matthew
TCHP
Esta cosa...alguien me pregunto hace par de paginas si yo creia que esto llegaria a ser un David, para ese momento se pronosticaba su ruta sobre La Espanola__Yo le respondi que, el potencial de darle a Santo domingo lo tenia segun los modelos y la perspectiva de llegar a ser un Major...quizas un C3, pero entendia que un C5 no se ve muy a menudo en nuestra zona__En ese momento, a mi juicio, ( y quizas estaba en lo cierto), Matthew no tenia la posibilidad de ser un C5 si seguia la ruta proyectada sobre La Espanola.
Pero he aqui que, siguio su rumbo al oeste, un tantito mas al sur...y en menos de lo que se pela un guineo...RIP! tenemos un monstruo, no es un monstrito, es un monstruo total...un KILLER!
Debe ser motivo de estudio...los modelos, que en su momento parecian exagerados se han quedado cortos y esto, si nos dejamos llevar por los mapas todavia no entra a la zona donde esta supuesto a explotar, esto es, despues de la 15N donde el TCHP aumenta, tenemos aguas mas calientes aun y, el shear esta llamado a descender a niveles optimos!
Tendremos un C6 o que?
David fue el ultimo C5 en afectar una isla caribena, cuando David le dio a Santo Domingo, tenia vientos de 175Mph y presion de 924Mbs
Desde entonces, han pasado 37 anos.
Me da mucha lastima por Jamaica...hoy en dia hay mucho mas informacion que en 1979 y la gente tiene mucho mas tiempo para comunicarse y prepararse_Quiera Dios el centro no los coja de lleno y se mueva un tantito mas al este y se quede sobre aguas del Caribe.
Sea como fuere, va a ser duro...muy muy duro para Jamaica, porque ya Matthew casi alcanza esos valores de David (160Mph y 941Mbs) cuando esta a poco mas de 2 dias de camino y sobre un terreno que, deberia favorecer aun mas su intensificacion...de manera que pudiera ser un sistema mas potente que David, al llegar a Jamaica__Wilma soplo a mas de 180Mph en 2005, pero esos vientos se quedaron en aguas del Golfo...imaginen la devastacion de unos vientos cercano a 180Mph sobre una isla pequena.
Ojala que no se de y, si se da...que hay la menor perdida de vidas posible...asi lo quiera Dios.
Esta cosa...alguien me pregunto hace par de paginas si yo creia que esto llegaria a ser un David, para ese momento se pronosticaba su ruta sobre La Espanola__Yo le respondi que, el potencial de darle a Santo domingo lo tenia segun los modelos y la perspectiva de llegar a ser un Major...quizas un C3, pero entendia que un C5 no se ve muy a menudo en nuestra zona__En ese momento, a mi juicio, ( y quizas estaba en lo cierto), Matthew no tenia la posibilidad de ser un C5 si seguia la ruta proyectada sobre La Espanola.
Pero he aqui que, siguio su rumbo al oeste, un tantito mas al sur...y en menos de lo que se pela un guineo...RIP! tenemos un monstruo, no es un monstrito, es un monstruo total...un KILLER!
Debe ser motivo de estudio...los modelos, que en su momento parecian exagerados se han quedado cortos y esto, si nos dejamos llevar por los mapas todavia no entra a la zona donde esta supuesto a explotar, esto es, despues de la 15N donde el TCHP aumenta, tenemos aguas mas calientes aun y, el shear esta llamado a descender a niveles optimos!
Tendremos un C6 o que?
David fue el ultimo C5 en afectar una isla caribena, cuando David le dio a Santo Domingo, tenia vientos de 175Mph y presion de 924Mbs
Desde entonces, han pasado 37 anos.
Me da mucha lastima por Jamaica...hoy en dia hay mucho mas informacion que en 1979 y la gente tiene mucho mas tiempo para comunicarse y prepararse_Quiera Dios el centro no los coja de lleno y se mueva un tantito mas al este y se quede sobre aguas del Caribe.
Sea como fuere, va a ser duro...muy muy duro para Jamaica, porque ya Matthew casi alcanza esos valores de David (160Mph y 941Mbs) cuando esta a poco mas de 2 dias de camino y sobre un terreno que, deberia favorecer aun mas su intensificacion...de manera que pudiera ser un sistema mas potente que David, al llegar a Jamaica__Wilma soplo a mas de 180Mph en 2005, pero esos vientos se quedaron en aguas del Golfo...imaginen la devastacion de unos vientos cercano a 180Mph sobre una isla pequena.
Ojala que no se de y, si se da...que hay la menor perdida de vidas posible...asi lo quiera Dios.
-
huracan sur
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 400
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:26 am
Re: Huracán Matthew
Me uno completamente a tus palabras,. Hace 3 días atrás nadie imaginaría ver un sistema tan poderoso y peligroso en aguas del Caribe bueno ahí lo dice los últimos fueron Dean y Félix ambos 2007, en cuanto a los modelos lo trabajaron bastante bien, el GFS en trayectoria y el HWRF y CMC en intensidadDavid.79 wrote:TCHP
Esta cosa...alguien me pregunto hace par de paginas si yo creia que esto llegaria a ser un David, para ese momento se pronosticaba su ruta sobre La Espanola__Yo le respondi que, el potencial de darle a Santo domingo lo tenia segun los modelos y la perspectiva de llegar a ser un Major...quizas un C3, pero entendia que un C5 no se ve muy a menudo en nuestra zona__En ese momento, a mi juicio, ( y quizas estaba en lo cierto), Matthew no tenia la posibilidad de ser un C5 si seguia la ruta proyectada sobre La Espanola.
Pero he aqui que, siguio su rumbo al oeste, un tantito mas al sur...y en menos de lo que se pela un guineo...RIP! tenemos un monstruo, no es un monstrito, es un monstruo total...un KILLER!
Debe ser motivo de estudio...los modelos, que en su momento parecian exagerados se han quedado cortos y esto, si nos dejamos llevar por los mapas todavia no entra a la zona donde esta supuesto a explotar, esto es, despues de la 15N donde el TCHP aumenta, tenemos aguas mas calientes aun y, el shear esta llamado a descender a niveles optimos!
Tendremos un C6 o que?
David fue el ultimo C5 en afectar una isla caribena, cuando David le dio a Santo Domingo, tenia vientos de 175Mph y presion de 924Mbs
Desde entonces, han pasado 37 anos.
Me da mucha lastima por Jamaica...hoy en dia hay mucho mas informacion que en 1979 y la gente tiene mucho mas tiempo para comunicarse y prepararse_Quiera Dios el centro no los coja de lleno y se mueva un tantito mas al este y se quede sobre aguas del Caribe.
Sea como fuere, va a ser duro...muy muy duro para Jamaica, porque ya Matthew casi alcanza esos valores de David (160Mph y 941Mbs) cuando esta a poco mas de 2 dias de camino y sobre un terreno que, deberia favorecer aun mas su intensificacion...de manera que pudiera ser un sistema mas potente que David, al llegar a Jamaica__Wilma soplo a mas de 180Mph en 2005, pero esos vientos se quedaron en aguas del Golfo...imaginen la devastacion de unos vientos cercano a 180Mph sobre una isla pequena.
Ojala que no se de y, si se da...que hay la menor perdida de vidas posible...asi lo quiera Dios.
Para información oficial favor referirse a las agencias pertinentes. Un aficionado a la meteorología #TeamCycloforums
Re: Huracán Matthew
En 33 horas, Matthew pasó de tormenta a huracán cat. 5, aumentó 90 millas sus vientos y bajó 55 mb su presión barométrica.
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Huracán Matthew
Aqui la discusión de las 5AM del NHC:
"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
Matthew has changed little in organization since the past advisory,
with a small eye surrounded by a central dense overcast featuring
cloud tops colder than -80C. The eye has become a little less
distinct, suggesting at least that the hurricane is no longer
intensifying. In addition, the raw intensity estimates from the
CIMSS ADT technique are slightly lower than they were six hours
ago. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to
135 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to reach Matthew near 1200 UTC.
The initial motion is now 270/6. Matthew remains south of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The dynamical models
forecast this ridge to weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to
upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This
evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward after 24 hours
and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance generally agrees with
this scenario. However, there is a spread between the GFS forecast
of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF forecast
landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more divergent
after 72 hours. The GFS shows a turn toward the north-northwest,
which brings the center closer to the northwestern Bahamas and
Florida. This model is near the western edge of the guidance
envelope. The ECMWF is near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope and shows the center east of the Bahamas by 120 hours.
Adding to the uncertainty is the eastward shift of the Canadian
model since its previous run. Given the uncertainty, the 96 and 120
hour forecast points are changed only slightly from the previous
forecast. This part of the forecast track lies to the east of the
GFS, but to the west of the Canadian, ECMWF, and NAVGEM models. It
is also a little to the west of the various consensus models.
Matthew should experience significant shear for the next 24 hours or
so, as water vapor imagery shows westerly flow blowing into the
hurricane underneath the impressive outflow pattern. This should
cause some weakening. After that time, the dynamical models suggest
the shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least
maintain its intensity. The new intensity forecast shows a
slightly weaker intensity than the previous advisory through 72
hours based mainly on current trends. Subsequently, the hurricane
is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and
Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the
structure. Between this and uncertainty about how much shear
Matthew will encounter north of Cuba, the new forecast shows only
modest strengthening after Matthew reaches the Atlantic north of
Cuba. There is also the possibility of fluctuations in intensity
caused by eyewall replacement cycles at any time during the forecast
period.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 72.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.3N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 75.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.2N 75.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.5N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven"
Me llamo la atencion varias cosas. Aunque sigue siendo un huracan mayor y muy peligroso, por ahora se detiene su rapida intensificacion. Que pueda volver a ser categoria 5, quien sabe.
La trayectoria a largo plazo de los modelos sigue siendo incierta, como ha sido la mayor parte del tempo. Lo que me parece bien es el trabajo en el NHC buscando establecer una trayectoria basada en su analisis de los diderentes resultados de los modelos. Aunque no hice el analisis como en Karl, me parece que han hecho un buen trabajo en el NHC.
Por ultimo, veo que ya es mas general recalcar el el TWD, que los modelos tienen margen de error y estan poniendo lo que yo interpreto como el error promedio del modelo a 4 y 5 dias. Siempre habia comentado que me gustaria saber el margen de error. Asumiendo que no hay "bias" en el estimado, eso parece un tipo de MAD, como el que use para Karl, alla en "Hurricane University". En otras palabras, esos numeros que dan es un margen de error alrededor del centro estimado.
Esperemos que impacte la menor area posible. Es aun un sistema muy peligroso.
"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
Matthew has changed little in organization since the past advisory,
with a small eye surrounded by a central dense overcast featuring
cloud tops colder than -80C. The eye has become a little less
distinct, suggesting at least that the hurricane is no longer
intensifying. In addition, the raw intensity estimates from the
CIMSS ADT technique are slightly lower than they were six hours
ago. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to
135 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to reach Matthew near 1200 UTC.
The initial motion is now 270/6. Matthew remains south of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The dynamical models
forecast this ridge to weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to
upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This
evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward after 24 hours
and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance generally agrees with
this scenario. However, there is a spread between the GFS forecast
of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF forecast
landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more divergent
after 72 hours. The GFS shows a turn toward the north-northwest,
which brings the center closer to the northwestern Bahamas and
Florida. This model is near the western edge of the guidance
envelope. The ECMWF is near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope and shows the center east of the Bahamas by 120 hours.
Adding to the uncertainty is the eastward shift of the Canadian
model since its previous run. Given the uncertainty, the 96 and 120
hour forecast points are changed only slightly from the previous
forecast. This part of the forecast track lies to the east of the
GFS, but to the west of the Canadian, ECMWF, and NAVGEM models. It
is also a little to the west of the various consensus models.
Matthew should experience significant shear for the next 24 hours or
so, as water vapor imagery shows westerly flow blowing into the
hurricane underneath the impressive outflow pattern. This should
cause some weakening. After that time, the dynamical models suggest
the shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least
maintain its intensity. The new intensity forecast shows a
slightly weaker intensity than the previous advisory through 72
hours based mainly on current trends. Subsequently, the hurricane
is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and
Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the
structure. Between this and uncertainty about how much shear
Matthew will encounter north of Cuba, the new forecast shows only
modest strengthening after Matthew reaches the Atlantic north of
Cuba. There is also the possibility of fluctuations in intensity
caused by eyewall replacement cycles at any time during the forecast
period.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 72.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.3N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 75.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.2N 75.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.5N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven"
Me llamo la atencion varias cosas. Aunque sigue siendo un huracan mayor y muy peligroso, por ahora se detiene su rapida intensificacion. Que pueda volver a ser categoria 5, quien sabe.
La trayectoria a largo plazo de los modelos sigue siendo incierta, como ha sido la mayor parte del tempo. Lo que me parece bien es el trabajo en el NHC buscando establecer una trayectoria basada en su analisis de los diderentes resultados de los modelos. Aunque no hice el analisis como en Karl, me parece que han hecho un buen trabajo en el NHC.
Por ultimo, veo que ya es mas general recalcar el el TWD, que los modelos tienen margen de error y estan poniendo lo que yo interpreto como el error promedio del modelo a 4 y 5 dias. Siempre habia comentado que me gustaria saber el margen de error. Asumiendo que no hay "bias" en el estimado, eso parece un tipo de MAD, como el que use para Karl, alla en "Hurricane University". En otras palabras, esos numeros que dan es un margen de error alrededor del centro estimado.
Esperemos que impacte la menor area posible. Es aun un sistema muy peligroso.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Huracán Matthew
Saludos StormWatch:StormWatch wrote:ROCKstormSJ4315 wrote:Me uno a este "post" y tambien el este de Cuba y Bahamas.StormWatch wrote:...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...
Pray for JAMAICA!
Muy cierto ROCKstormSJ4315 Saludos!
Vamos a ver si Jamaica puede escaparse de lo peor del sistema. Ese cambio al norte tiene que ser casi perfecto para que pase entre medio de Haiti y Jamaica y haga el menor dano posible.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
Re: Huracán Matthew
El ajuste leve al Este en la trayectoria 5am del CNH refleja lo que el GFS 06z y Europeo 00z muestran, que es un ajuste al Este en la futura ruta de Matthew. CNH pasa el centro del ciclón por el canal de Jamaica, muy cerca de esa isla, lo que es igual a más cerca de Haití. El GFS 06z cambió y pasa a Matthew cerca de la punta Oeste de Haití, mientras el Europeo lo mueve casi sobre la punta Oeste de Haití.
Aparte de ser potencialmente devastadora para Haití, una traslación sobre esa isla podría tener efectos indirectos sobre nuestras condiciones del tiempo ya que podría aumentar la humedad en la zona y producir aguaceros el lunes, aproximadamente.
ECMWF:
GFS:
Aparte de ser potencialmente devastadora para Haití, una traslación sobre esa isla podría tener efectos indirectos sobre nuestras condiciones del tiempo ya que podría aumentar la humedad en la zona y producir aguaceros el lunes, aproximadamente.
ECMWF:
GFS:
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Huracán Matthew
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.1 West. Matthew is moving toward
the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to
Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the
Colombian border.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.1 West. Matthew is moving toward
the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to
Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the
Colombian border.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
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Forecaster Brennan
emh- huracan es simplemente ahora Edgardo. Importante: Phil Klotzbach, recordó que "el mejor momento para prepararse para los huracanes es cuando todavía no hay huracanes".
Re: Huracán Matthew
5am: 13.3N
8am: 13.4N
¿Cambio en la pared del ojo o inició giro al NO antes de lo anticipado?
8am: 13.4N
¿Cambio en la pared del ojo o inició giro al NO antes de lo anticipado?
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.