CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Obi-Wan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:27 pm Imagen de radar con el centro de Fiona casi pasando sobre Guadalupe. Hay una regla urbana que dice que sistema que pase sobre Guadalupe, se mete en Puerto Rico.

El Herbert Box Boricua!

Georges_98 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:25 pm

StormWatch wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:06 pm Mencionó lo anterior pq ahora casi todos los meteorólogos dicen esto:

Fiona is going to impact Puerto Rico/Hispaniola this weekend into early next week.

Pronostican una ralentización en su velocidad de traslación una vez se divorcie del shear y se disipe la Alta que esta al norte de nosotros. Entonces comenzará a girar al norte y a ganar intensidad. La incertidumbre, hermano StormWatch, es en que punto hará estos dos movimientos.

Veremos entonces!

Mientras tanto!
Imagen actual:

Parece que está pasándola mal. ADT ha bajado los final T numbers de 2.7 a 2.2.

FIONA NO TE ENTIENDO JAJAJAJA

Rickster wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:08 pm Parece que está pasándola mal. ADT ha bajado los final T numbers de 2.7 a 2.2.

En rojo es la conclusión verdad?

The “Raw T#” value is the unadjusted Raw “DT” number determined using the
current scene type and measured environmental parameters (Section 5B and 5C) for the
selected scene type (cloud curvature, eye/cloud temperatures, etc.). The “Adj T#” value
represents the current intensity of the storm after any Constraint Limit (Dvorak “Rule 8”)
rules have been applied (see Section 5F). The “Final T#” value is the average of the
current and previous three hour analyses values (see Section 5D). Finally, the “CI#” value
represents the 3-hour averaged value after various ADT rules and constraints governing
its variability, listed next to the Constraint Limits and Weakening Flag labels at the end of
18
the intensity bulletin, have been applied. For more details on these rules, see Sections 5E,
5F, and 5G.

The EIR Rule 9 will hold the CI# at values 0.5 to 1.0 higher in value than the current Final T# (Raw T#
after adjustments and time-averaging). Subjective application of this rule (e.g. how and
when to apply it) varies between forecasters and is the focal point of much debate

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/g ... _Guide.pdf

8pm advisory:

NHC forecasts Fiona will strengthen as it enters the Caribbean and approaches Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

StormWatch wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:56 pm 8pm advisory:

NHC forecasts Fiona will strengthen as it enters the Caribbean and approaches Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

Nos leen.

Obvio, no lo dicen.

Pero nos leen.

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Observaciónes de la Isla de Guadalupe indican vientos de tormenta entre 35 y 70 mph. El centro se encuentra justo al nortenoroeste de esa isla. Avión cazahuracán se encuentra volando por la tormenta. #Fiona
LMR

David.79 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:03 pm

StormWatch wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:56 pm 8pm advisory:

NHC forecasts Fiona will strengthen as it enters the Caribbean and approaches Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

Nos leen.

Obvio, no lo dicen.

Pero nos leen.