Y si...SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
Tormenta tropical Earl
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
corrida del modelo nam
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- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
Selfie del Invest 97L
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
Vigilancia de inundaciones para todo Puerto Rico, desde 6am de mañana domingo.
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
Saludos a todos aqui estamos activados nuevamente ya era hora !! Bueno el GFS Es un poco más agresivo en esta corrida. El sistema cada ves luce mejor creando bandas en espiral y mejorando el outflow. Uno de los mejores modelos para mí en ciclogenesis el año pasado en HWRLF desarrolla el sistema como una depresión o quizás tormenta débil al sur de la isla cerca de la latitud 16.5 norte . Según como la veo quizás eso pueda ser una realidad , claro esto solo es mi opinión personal
Re: Invest 97l con 20% (amarillo) /40% (anaranjado)
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Invest 97L (Vigilancia de inundaciones para PR-IV)
Tiene q empezar a subir un poco!!!
Para informacion oficial dirigirse al website de NHC.
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- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 97L (Vigilancia de inundaciones para PR-IV)
Dante wrote:Tiene q empezar a subir un poco!!!
Si, eso va, está en proceso..............................
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 97L (Vigilancia de inundaciones para PR-IV)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A strong tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph and is accompanied by
increasing shower activity. However, surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation. During the next
day or two, development should be slow to occur due to the rapid
motion of the system. Regardless of development, this system will
likely bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and
interests in these areas should monitor its progress. By the middle
of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the western
Caribbean Sea, where conditions are likely to be more conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
ABNT20 KNHC 301738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A strong tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph and is accompanied by
increasing shower activity. However, surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation. During the next
day or two, development should be slow to occur due to the rapid
motion of the system. Regardless of development, this system will
likely bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and
interests in these areas should monitor its progress. By the middle
of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the western
Caribbean Sea, where conditions are likely to be more conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
-
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 97L (Vigilancia de inundaciones para PR-IV)
Llenando de tronadas ese "centro" mucho pop corn.......Si bajara su movimiento de traslación ..............
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]