Mas al norte de lo que yo esperaba
Huracan Laura
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Saludos: a esta hora se ve extremadamente bien creo que va a ser tormenta para manana , BTW ese cono podria bajar una vez el caza huracanes de la pocision correcta, hay que estar atentos
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Concurro! Muy al norte de lo que esperaba tambien. Es que el Euro influye tanto en el NHC. Sin embargo el mismo NHC indica que su pronostico inicial es de baja confidencia ya que el sistema acaba de formarse. Para mi hay un centro de circulacion o vortice mas al sur del centro oficial, pueden haber dos vortices compitiendo como paso con Isaias, muy importante la data manana del avion caza huracanes.
-
huracan sur
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 400
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:26 am
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Muy de acuerdo contigo Obi, pensaba que el LLC estaba más al sur cerca a la 13.n , pero el americano tiene las herramientas. A esperar la data del caza mañana a ver que traeObi-Wan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:12 pm Concurro! Muy al norte de lo que esperaba tambien. Es que el Euro influye tanto en el NHC. Sin embargo el mismo NHC indica que su pronostico inicial es de baja confidencia ya que el sistema acaba de formarse. Para mi hay un centro de circulacion o vortice mas al sur del centro oficial, pueden haber dos vortices compitiendo como paso con Isaias, muy importante la data manana del avion caza huracanes.
Para información oficial favor referirse a las agencias pertinentes. Un aficionado a la meteorología #TeamCycloforums
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Obi-Wan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:12 pm Concurro! Muy al norte de lo que esperaba tambien. Es que el Euro influye tanto en el NHC. Sin embargo el mismo NHC indica que su pronostico inicial es de baja confidencia ya que el sistema acaba de formarse. Para mi hay un centro de circulacion o vortice mas al sur del centro oficial, pueden haber dos vortices compitiendo como paso con Isaias, muy importante la data manana del avion caza huracanes.
Exactamente y más un cuando el best track original fue este:
AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Mañana sabremos que hay con certeza. Hoy estan improvisando este año el Atlántico esta dando mucha lata para la formación de los sistema.Estar pendiente a los cambios.
-
azotame_tormenta
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 22
- Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:59 pm
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Crown Weather:
Based on the combination of increased organization, an increase in concentrated thunderstorm activity and satellite estimated winds that suggest a low-level center has formed, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 98-L to Tropical Depression #13 as of 11 pm EDT/10 pm CDT.
It is likely that the depression will continue strengthening and will become a tropical storm later Thursday or on Friday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in both the forecast track and forecast strength of this system. The further north Tropical Depression #13 can track in latitude over the next couple of days, the worse it may be for the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast.
There are at least a couple of scenarios at play here -
The first is if the depression tracks across the islands of the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba and emerges in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. If it takes this track, its core will be severely disrupted by the high mountains of Hispaniola and the mountains of Cuba leaving it to try to rebuild itself in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This would likely lead to a much weaker storm in the end.
The second and much more concerning scenario is if the depression tracks to the north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and north of the Greater Antilles. The environmental conditions in the area from north of Puerto Rico westward into the Bahamas is very favorable for strengthening & we’d be looking at the very real potential for a significant hurricane threat for the Bahamas on Saturday night and Sunday and then a possible significant hurricane threat for South Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday. In addition, this system would then enter the Gulf of Mexico as a potentially significant hurricane on Monday night. I urge everyone in the Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys to pay very close attention to the forecast of this depression.
Finally, it is likely that the northern Leeward Islands, both the US & British Virgin Islands will see a period of tropical storm conditions on Friday night and Saturday morning.
A full comprehensive tropical weather discussion on not only Tropical Depression #13, but also Invest 97-L in the central Caribbean and also the tropical disturbance in the far eastern Tropical Atlantic will be issued by just before midday Thursday.
Based on the combination of increased organization, an increase in concentrated thunderstorm activity and satellite estimated winds that suggest a low-level center has formed, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 98-L to Tropical Depression #13 as of 11 pm EDT/10 pm CDT.
It is likely that the depression will continue strengthening and will become a tropical storm later Thursday or on Friday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in both the forecast track and forecast strength of this system. The further north Tropical Depression #13 can track in latitude over the next couple of days, the worse it may be for the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast.
There are at least a couple of scenarios at play here -
The first is if the depression tracks across the islands of the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba and emerges in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. If it takes this track, its core will be severely disrupted by the high mountains of Hispaniola and the mountains of Cuba leaving it to try to rebuild itself in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This would likely lead to a much weaker storm in the end.
The second and much more concerning scenario is if the depression tracks to the north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and north of the Greater Antilles. The environmental conditions in the area from north of Puerto Rico westward into the Bahamas is very favorable for strengthening & we’d be looking at the very real potential for a significant hurricane threat for the Bahamas on Saturday night and Sunday and then a possible significant hurricane threat for South Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday. In addition, this system would then enter the Gulf of Mexico as a potentially significant hurricane on Monday night. I urge everyone in the Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys to pay very close attention to the forecast of this depression.
Finally, it is likely that the northern Leeward Islands, both the US & British Virgin Islands will see a period of tropical storm conditions on Friday night and Saturday morning.
A full comprehensive tropical weather discussion on not only Tropical Depression #13, but also Invest 97-L in the central Caribbean and also the tropical disturbance in the far eastern Tropical Atlantic will be issued by just before midday Thursday.
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
000
WTNT33 KNHC 200900
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the VirginIslands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings willbe required for portions of those areas later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteenwas located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. Thedepression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Onthe forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or northof the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north ofthe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expectedto become a tropical storm by later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches ofrain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday overthe northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watcharea by late Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT33 KNHC 200900
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 49.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the VirginIslands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings willbe required for portions of those areas later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteenwas located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. Thedepression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Onthe forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or northof the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north ofthe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expectedto become a tropical storm by later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches ofrain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday overthe northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watcharea by late Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Last edited by megadicto on Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Ajustada un poco al sur la posible trayectoria. Continuarán estos ajustes debido a que aun se está organizando?...veremos
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Otra cosa q me resulta ineresante son las vigilancias emitidas...pq se incluye unas islas que estan al.sur del cono? y pq no incluir otras q estan mas al norte y en la misma latitud? 