Depresión Tropical 14

[cicloncuba]

Creo q Jamaica y Cuba deben estar alertas con este sistema.

[Arlequín]

Creo q Jamaica y Cuba deben estar alertas con este sistema.

Asi es amigo cicloncuba... asi lo muestra el conjunto de modelos del CMC

[Arlequín]

Sube a 50% en 5 dias

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine, located a couple of hundred miles
north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Georges_98]

Saludos! La NHC le sube a 50 % las posibilidades de formación a este sistema. Lo raro es que no le cambia la pintura. Hay un ambiente relativamente sano para ella en toda la periferia. Ya comienzan a desaparecer los vientos cortantes, aunque se mantiene un poco del aire seco que junto a los shear devoraron a Josephine. Ellos mencionan que la alta velocidad de la onda es un factor inhibidor de su desarrollo, pero lo que estamos viendo es una buena cantidad de humedad que la ha puesto gordita. Esta onda puede ser el inicio de un período de taller para nosotros. A prepararnos!

[huracan sur]

Saludos! La NHC le sube a 50 % las posibilidades de formación a este sistema. Lo raro es que no le cambia la pintura. Hay un ambiente relativamente sano para ella en toda la periferia. Ya comienzan a desaparecer los vientos cortantes, aunque se mantiene un poco del aire seco que junto a los shear devoraron a Josephine. Ellos mencionan que la alta velocidad de la onda es un factor inhibidor de su desarrollo, pero lo que estamos viendo es una buena cantidad de humedad que la ha puesto gordita. Esta onda puede ser el inicio de un período de taller para nosotros. A prepararnos!

Asumo yo que al no contar con el apoyo de todos los modelos, y los que sí la desarrollan como tormenta lo hacen en el centro del caribe cerca a Jamaica y Yucatan. Y potencialmente con ruta a Texas a largo plazo.

[Arlequín]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to
limit significant development. After that time, however, the system
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Arlequín]

A esta le ponen su pinturita roja tambien..}
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce
an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave
is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant
development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time,
however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical
depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Arlequín]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras
and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent..

[megadicto]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).