Tormenta tropical Gonzalo
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- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Se formará? Luce bien el 99L a esta hora!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Saludos katrina23 definitivamente hace falta la lluvia para que se acabe el racionamiento, por lo demás ya debemos estar preparados.katrina23 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:47 pmHola!!Villafañe wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 pmSaludos hurrizonepr, bien que si, si la mantiene podríamos tener sorpresas en la mañana en las imágenes del visible. Veremoshurrizonepr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:23 pm Mejorando su presentación está noche. Algo más de convección. A ver si la mantiene..
Se supone que ya a esta alturas las personas esten ultimando detalles.
Necesitamos que llegue esa lluvia pero lo mas pronto posible.
Así que crucemos los dedos!!!
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Saludos StormWatch, Si si si se ve bien, veremos si le suben los % en unos minutos o esperan ver el visible en la mañana.
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Aumentaron a 40%
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Saludos Alquerin subió a 40/40 y hay que ver en la mañana que no sea que este en proceso una circulación cerrada pequeña y tengan que subir los números y hasta asisgnarle nombre.VeremosArlequín wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:08 am Aumentaron a 40%
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Ve?
Estamos a pelo de tener un ciclón.
Yo no digo que la intensidad del viento a esta hora sea la necesaria, pero 99L tiene la estructura propia de un ciclón, aparte de que ha crecido algo.
De manera que, no habiendo factores a la vista que lo impidan, deberiamos tener una TD ya después del mediodía a medida que se vaya adentrando en zonas de aguas más cálidas.
Lleva buen ritmo para una onda moviéndose en un ambiente casi hostil, arropada poe el polvo y vientos cortantes que soplaban de allá para acá, o sea, del este...ahora que han disminuido y 99L pudo arripar su centro, la capa de SAL está en amarillo pollito más adelante y no debe ser mucho factor...pudiéramos tener un huracán eventualmente después de la 50W si continúa ese patrón de organización..cerca a Sotavento las aguas están para pelar puercos.
Estamos a pelo de tener un ciclón.
Yo no digo que la intensidad del viento a esta hora sea la necesaria, pero 99L tiene la estructura propia de un ciclón, aparte de que ha crecido algo.
De manera que, no habiendo factores a la vista que lo impidan, deberiamos tener una TD ya después del mediodía a medida que se vaya adentrando en zonas de aguas más cálidas.
Lleva buen ritmo para una onda moviéndose en un ambiente casi hostil, arropada poe el polvo y vientos cortantes que soplaban de allá para acá, o sea, del este...ahora que han disminuido y 99L pudo arripar su centro, la capa de SAL está en amarillo pollito más adelante y no debe ser mucho factor...pudiéramos tener un huracán eventualmente después de la 50W si continúa ese patrón de organización..cerca a Sotavento las aguas están para pelar puercos.
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- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 451
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Buenos días foristas e invitados. En la mañana 99L luce muy bien, aumentando la convección, buena rotación y buen. "outflow". También tiene una trayectoria de mucho interés para el Caribe. Sabemos que tiene factores adversos como aire seco , pero también a favor, como la temperatura del agua y bajos vientos cortantes al momento. Creo que el NHC le aumentará más las probabilidades o de una sorpresa y la nombren depresión en el día de hoy.
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
2. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Re: 99L-Atlantico central
Asi es amigo Villafañe ya se esta viendo bien organizadaVillafañe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:16 amSaludos Alquerin subió a 40/40 y hay que ver en la mañana que no sea que este en proceso una circulación cerrada pequeña y tengan que subir los números y hasta asisgnarle nombre.VeremosArlequín wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:08 am Aumentaron a 40%
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.