Tormenta Lee

[StormWatch]

A las 11:00am nace Lee!


AL, 14, 2017091612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 328W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, genesis-num, 029

[StormWatch]

Depresión Tropical 14

[StormWatch]

Tormenta Tropical Lee

Tropical Storm #Lee Advisory 7: Depression Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Lee. go.usa.gov/W3H

[StormWatch]

11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 16
Location: 12.5°N 33.1°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[StormWatch]

11:00am

12.5°N 33.1°W

[StormWatch]

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this
time yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100
UTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force
winds at least to the east of its center. Based on these data, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of
35 kt. Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15
kt of north-northwesterly shear. The cyclone appears to be located
in a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper-
level westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be
able to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so.
After that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely
be hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours. With all that
in mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next
or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and Lee may
ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

Lee's initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt. The storm is
located to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected
to move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire
forecast period. Although some of the track models are showing a
more pronounced poleward motion, Lee's relatively low intensity and
eventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow.
As a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of
the guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF
model. This forecast is not too different from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.5N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 12.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 12.9N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 13.6N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 15.6N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 18.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[San Ciprian]

peroo y que pasa con estass cosas que no nos dejan en paz ? y viene para aca ? Bendito sea Dios

[StormWatch]

Tropical Storm #Lee Advisory 9: Lee Moving Westward and Not Expected to Strengthen. go.usa.gov/W3H

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea