Tormenta Tropical Ernesto
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E. Irizarry
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:52 pm
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
A esta hora 10:30 parece que el PTC 5 empieza a organizar su LLC se ve bastante clara la rotación cerca a la 13.8n y 51w
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
Boletín de las 11pm
Más cerca de PR
Se ha reajustado la trayectoria del Ciclón Tropical Potencial #5 más cercana al área este de Puerto Rico y se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para las Islas Vírgenes Estadounidenses y Británicas, y St. Barthelemy.
Más cerca de PR
Se ha reajustado la trayectoria del Ciclón Tropical Potencial #5 más cercana al área este de Puerto Rico y se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para las Islas Vírgenes Estadounidenses y Británicas, y St. Barthelemy.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
794
WTNT45 KNHC 120243
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not
well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a
well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of
increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity
is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to
pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better
assess the status of the system.
Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be
continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt.
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the
potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more
or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2
to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S.
east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of
the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward
the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC
forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one
during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model
consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for
potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual
because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position.
The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly
vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial
development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon
and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more
conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for
intensification in general agreement with the intensity model
consensus.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by
early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the
progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT45 KNHC 120243
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not
well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a
well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of
increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity
is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to
pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better
assess the status of the system.
Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be
continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt.
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the
potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more
or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2
to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S.
east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of
the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward
the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC
forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one
during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model
consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for
potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual
because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position.
The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly
vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial
development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon
and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more
conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for
intensification in general agreement with the intensity model
consensus.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by
early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the
progress of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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E. Irizarry
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:52 pm
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
Muy Interesante las nuevas corridas, en especial GFS y ICON, ahora atrasan la formación del PTC 5 hasta llegar a la 60w y la Pasan al sur de nuevo pero como tormenta. Hasta el CMC que era de los que más al NE la veía a cambiado de nuevo y la pasa por la parte este de PR.
Ese rápido movimiento qué lleva y la falta de un centro definido, seguirá cambiando las proyecciones de los modelos.
Solo una apreciación mía, sigo viendo algo parecido a un LLC un poco más al sur y oeste que la ubicación del CNH, 13.8N y 51W, pero son cosas mías no hagan caso
Ese rápido movimiento qué lleva y la falta de un centro definido, seguirá cambiando las proyecciones de los modelos.
Solo una apreciación mía, sigo viendo algo parecido a un LLC un poco más al sur y oeste que la ubicación del CNH, 13.8N y 51W, pero son cosas mías no hagan caso
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
Saludos !!! De acuerdo en tu apreciación y comentarios. Hay que pelarse los ojos con esto.E. Irizarry wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 12:04 am Muy Interesante las nuevas corridas, en especial GFS y ICON, ahora atrasan la formación del PTC 5 hasta llegar a la 60w y la Pasan al sur de nuevo pero como tormenta. Hasta el CMC que era de los que más al NE la veía a cambiado de nuevo y la pasa por la parte este de PR.
Ese rápido movimiento qué lleva y la falta de un centro definido, seguirá cambiando las proyecciones de los modelos.
Solo una apreciación mía, sigo viendo algo parecido a un LLC un poco más al sur y oeste que la ubicación del CNH, 13.8N y 51W, pero son cosas mías no hagan caso
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
Veo en el satellite...y no Hagan mucho caso porque estoy dormido aun, me sacaron temprano de la cama para empezar a laborar dado a la cercania de este disturbio atmosferico...veo que a las 5am probablemente PT#5 ya sea TT Ernesto...la veo con un posible centro mas al oeste y al sure...me parece que va a haber un buen reajuste de la trayectoria...ustedes diran...
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para Puerto Rico.
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
000
WTNT45 KNHC 120837
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not
well organized. However, these observations also suggest the
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or
northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone
status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.
The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease
in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning
northwestward and northward into the break. While the model
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.
Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first
36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows
significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are
in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.
3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the
nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT45 KNHC 120837
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not
well organized. However, these observations also suggest the
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or
northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone
status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.
The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease
in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning
northwestward and northward into the break. While the model
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.
Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first
36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows
significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are
in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.
3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the
nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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E. Irizarry
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:52 pm
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
El caza sigue buscando, y al parecer todavia no hay un LLC, y tampoco vientos de TT. su movimiento es muy rapido, cada vez se ve mas creible el pronostico del GFS, mantenerlo debil hasta al sur de PR