Saludos!
Maria se perfila a ser el peor huracan en azotar a PR en 40-50 anos, si no mas. Todo esta dandose en la atmosfera para que sea asi. Preparese. Irma fue un excelente simulacro para saber que nos falto, y que podemos anadir ahora. Una vigilancia de huracan es altamente probable manana a las 5pm. Maria tiene ese "look" que cuando vaya el caza huracanes a las 1130am, encontrara una tormenta de 70mph, quizas un huracan categoria 1.
Huracán María
-
hurricanetrack
- Meteorólogo
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:37 am
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
72 horas!
Euro...
Euro...
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
WOW 96 HORASSSSSSSSSSS!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Europeo por el sur esto está complicado, el sistema parece que en fin comienza a reducir su movimiento de translación cómo mencionó Rockstorm, pero se intensifica también. 
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huracan sur
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 400
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:26 am
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Saludos, a nuestro meteorólogo deluxe, a Rock, Villa, David y los demás que seguimos merodeando. Como menciona Félix no me extrañaría que el caza huracán encuentre un huracán cat.1 mañana, solo queda decir prepárese nuevamente, no lo deje para el último día. Este sistema promete ser más peligroso que Irma no por su fuerza si no por su posición y trayectoria sur a norte, contrario a Irma que gracias a Dios dejo su lado débil hacia P.R. pero no creo poder decir lo mismo con María y espero equivocarme. A los que nos leen desde las gradas regístrese en confianza, pregunté, comente. Los voy dejando que la madrugada de mañana y del lunes no van hacer cosa fácil.hurricanetrack wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:04 am Saludos!
Maria se perfila a ser el peor huracan en azotar a PR en 40-50 anos, si no mas. Todo esta dandose en la atmosfera para que sea asi. Preparese. Irma fue un excelente simulacro para saber que nos falto, y que podemos anadir ahora. Una vigilancia de huracan es altamente probable manana a las 5pm. Maria tiene ese "look" que cuando vaya el caza huracanes a las 1130am, encontrara una tormenta de 70mph, quizas un huracan categoria 1.
Para información oficial favor referirse a las agencias pertinentes. Un aficionado a la meteorología #TeamCycloforums
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Ya en la AAA estarán comenzando a hacer los preparativos para lo peor desde hoy. Esto no VA a ser nada fácil.
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Saludos
Ese movimiento aparenta seguir oeste. Creo que la corrida será ajustada más hacia el sur. Se complicaría más para RD.
Comentario de aficionado mira mapas.
Ese movimiento aparenta seguir oeste. Creo que la corrida será ajustada más hacia el sur. Se complicaría más para RD.
Comentario de aficionado mira mapas.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA STRENGTHENING..
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica to a Hurricane Watch.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 54.9 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the Hurricane Watch area.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA STRENGTHENING..
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica to a Hurricane Watch.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 54.9 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the Hurricane Watch area.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing
convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.
Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.
Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now
moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure
area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the
next several days. This should result in a continued
west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The
official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.
2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing
convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.
Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.
Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now
moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure
area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the
next several days. This should result in a continued
west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The
official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.
2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Inland in 96 hours!!!! 
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."