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StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: INVEST 91L al SE de Cabo Verde: 10%-30%

Post by StormWatch »

Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: INVEST 91L al SE de Cabo Verde: 10%-30%

Post by StormWatch »

Up 40%
Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
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Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: INVEST 91L al SE de Cabo Verde: 10%-30%

Post by StormWatch »

A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Arlequín
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Re: INVEST 91L al SE de Cabo Verde: 10%-30%

Post by Arlequín »

StormWatch esa SAL la veo muy lejos :) :)
StormWatch
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Re: INVEST 91L al SO de Cabo Verde: 10%-40%

Post by StormWatch »

Cono de proyección Invest 91L durante el día de HOY!
(August 13)

PD: NO ES TRAYECTORIA! En ese cono tiene posibilidades de formarse en Depresión.....

A las 2am
Image


A las 8am
Image


A las 2pm
Image


A las 8pm
Image
Last edited by StormWatch on Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
katrina23
Invest
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Re: INVEST 91L al SE de Cabo Verde: 10%-30%

Post by katrina23 »

Arlequín wrote: Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:35 pm
StormWatch esa SAL la veo muy lejos :) :)
Yo veo mas ondas que sal!!!
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ROCKstormSJ4315
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Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: INVEST 91L al SO de Cabo Verde: 10%-40%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Es inevitable que deje pasar por alto lo parecido del Invest 99 y este nuevo Invest 91.

El 4 de agosto El TWO para el invest 99 decia:

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."

El 13 de agosto, para el nuevo Invest 91, El TWO:

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent."

Mas o menos en la misma longitud en que esta el Invest 91 ahora. Solo que el Invest 99 estaba mas al sur y el cono de posible formacion apuntaba mas al sur de PR que el Invest 91 y ya sabemos que paso con El Invest 99.

Con esto no estoy afirmando que pasara lo mismo, pero se parecen ambos sistemas y creo que para este Invest 91 la clave estara tambien en su interaccion con el TUTT que le acompana. Tambien esto evidencia lo que siempre he dicho: La estimacion de trayectoria a mas de 48 horas envuelve un alto riesgo o incertidumbre.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Vigilante
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Re: INVEST 91L al SO de Cabo Verde: 10%-40%

Post by Vigilante »

Modelo Navgem 18z se une al Europeo y al Ukmet con el doble desarrollo.

La primera gráfica es lo que muestra con respecto a la onda de la 35W y PR

Image

La segunda gráfica es como termina la corrida.

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
StormWatch
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Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: INVEST 91L al SO de Cabo Verde: 10%-40%

Post by StormWatch »

Up 50%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge during the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: INVEST 91L al SO de Cabo Verde: 10%-40%

Post by StormWatch »

2am #Invest91L
Up 50%

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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