Tormenta Tropical Bret al sureste de Islas de Barlovento

[hwiex]

Bajo a 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo en el boletín de las 2pm...

A tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little in organization
since yesterday. However, some development is expected during the
next two to three days before conditions become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move toward
the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Arlequín]

Han notado que el GFS esta mostrando una ruta un poco mas al norte cada corrida que pasa ???
12z

18z

[hwiex]

Si y si notas esta corrida lo baja hasta 999 MB osea que podemos tener aquí facíl un huracán categoria 1 y luego se disuelve en las próximas corridas.



En esta segunda se debilita



Ya en esta se va disolviendo.



Hay mucho Shear en el ambiente.

[hwiex]

Osea yo haciendo un analisis breve. Tendriamos un huracán categoria 1 justo en la islas que estan al sureste del Caribe y luego continuara su movimiento hacia el oeste noroeste disipandose. Lo que deberia preocuparnos es que si se materializa este pronostico todos sabemos que cuando los huracanes o las tormentas llegan al arco de las antillas comienzan a subir erraticamente en zigzag.

[CarlosP]

Solo pasando para decirles que aquí no hay nada que buscar

Saludos a todos!

[hwiex]

Solo pasando para decirles que aquí no hay nada que buscar

Saludos a todos!

Ni modo...

[hwiex]

Ahora a las 8 PM practicamente se ha quedado igual con 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo.

A tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some development of this system is possible during the
next few days before environmental conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move
to the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward
Islands and northeastern South America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[hwiex]

Observen la tendencia del GFS para el miercoles ahora lo pasa mucho mas cerca a la isla como una baja presión o depresión tropical...

[hurrizonepr]

50/50 this morning. 8am TWO.
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Some development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days before
environmental conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest at
near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South
America during the next two days, and interests in these areas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent."
Nos vamos 50-50...Ja ja

[David.79]

En esta hermosa manana de nuestro senor es cuando mejor se ha visto esta ondita...si le han bajao los numeros es porque justo mas adelante hay una amplia zona de vientos que no son presentables en sociedad, buena parte de ellos cortesia de una vaguada que se mueve al norte/noreste de 92L...entonces, hay humedad de sobra mas adelante etc etc...si puede lidiar contra esos vientos despeluzadores, puede que tengamos ciclon. con muy poco que se arrope. deberiamos tener una TD al menos, con la circulacion tan solida que presenta el satelite...pero si no puede con el Shear, lo cual es muy probable, se nos escocota antes de llegar al sur de la isla__Resumiendo...de poder, puede, pero puede que no pueda.