Huracán Matthew

[boleco]

Parece que republica dominica recibira mucha lluvia y viento de tormenta

[Vigilante]

En seis días, Matthew nos ha ayudado a subir de 4,000 seguidores a 4,300 en Twitter. Muchos son de Venezuela y República Dominicana.

[edgardo]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 73.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Haiti from the
southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St.
Nicholas.

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for that country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of eastern Cuba later today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Sunday and toward the north on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central
Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft was
947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in
Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba
by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Monday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela
from Coro to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Georges_98]

Sí, Vigilante, el trabajo que tú, David_79, StormWatch, Rockstorm, Huracán 75, entre otros, realizan aquí es sumamente profesional. Sinceramente los felicito. Me siento muy honrado de pertenecer a un foro de supuestos "aficionados", que lleven tanta ilustración a la comunidad meteorológica. Sinceramente, te felicito hermano!

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

A esta hora el movmiento del centro del sistema luce algo erratico. O es un jog o un ajuste del centro. Lo cierto es que lo que sea el motivo, esta retrasando en algo el cambio al NO y luego al Norte. Da al impresion que se movio al S-SE o que quisiera dar una vuelta de 360 grados . Habra que esperar ver que sucede. Es muy temprano aun para pensar que es una tendencia, para mi parece algo temporero.

PD: Georges_98 gracias por tus comentarios.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

El ajuste leve al Este en la trayectoria 5am del CNH refleja lo que el GFS 06z y Europeo 00z muestran, que es un ajuste al Este en la futura ruta de Matthew. CNH pasa el centro del ciclón por el canal de Jamaica, muy cerca de esa isla, lo que es igual a más cerca de Haití. El GFS 06z cambió y pasa a Matthew cerca de la punta Oeste de Haití, mientras el Europeo lo mueve casi sobre la punta Oeste de Haití.
Aparte de ser potencialmente devastadora para Haití, una traslación sobre esa isla podría tener efectos indirectos sobre nuestras condiciones del tiempo ya que podría aumentar la humedad en la zona y producir aguaceros el lunes, aproximadamente.

Saludos Vigilante:

En efecto, ya en la ultima discusion del NWS, de la oficina local, aparece algo sobre esto.

Aqui la ultima discusion:

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
127 PM AST SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure centered in the northern
Atlantic will maintain an easterly wind flow through the rest of
weekend across the region. The winds are expected to become more
southerly early in the week as Hurricane Matthew moves northward
over the Bahamas. The moisture advecting over Hurricane Matthew
will have an impact on the local weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated scattered to numerous trade
wind showers across the surrounding coastal waters, the USVI,
Vieques, Culebra as well as across most sections of Puerto Rico
this afternoon. Few thunderstorms were also developed across
western and interior sections of Puerto Rico by mid afternoon.
This activity was associated with the moisture left behind
Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew, currently about 365 miles SSW of Port Au Prince
Haiti, is expected to move north tonight and Sunday. As this
happens the local low level wind flow will become more from the
south in association with the outer circulation of Matthew. This
humid southerly wind flow will bring deep tropical moisture across
the forecast area starting on Sunday and continuing until the
middle of the week. A slight shift to the right of the projected
path of Matthew will bring more moisture influx across the region.
An increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected across
interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico early next week. As
of now, the days with the moist amount of moisture appears to be
Monday and Tuesday. The GFS model guidance suggests PWAT values
of around 2.10 inches on Monday increasing to around 2.25 inches
Monday afternoon, decreasing again to around 2.10 by Tuesday".

[Arlequín]

El modelo EURO muestra un panorama en que podrían poner condiciones de tormenta tropical para la mitad oeste de Republica Dominicana

[boleco]

El modelo EURO muestra un panorama en que podrían poner condiciones de tormentcanbiandoa tropical para la mitad oeste de Republica Dominicana

La cosa estan canbiando a urtima hora

[Javier]

La corrida 12Z Del Europeo se ajusta aún más a la derecha pasando el centro prácticamente por el mismo centro de Haití . Preocupante para Haití y la RD . Nosotros pues podríamos tener más lluvia. Ese movimiento hacia el sse lo que nos indica que está preparado para dar el giro hacia el norte lo que pondría a Haití es aprietos y salvar a Jamaica de un impacto importante de este sistema. La RD debe monitorear bien de cerca q este sistema si Mathew sigue llendose a la derecha el impacto en RD sería aún mayor y para nosotros acá en PR más lluvia. Así que pendientes .

[boleco]

Aqui en rd se esperan de 20 a 25 pulgada de lluvia anque creo que estan esagerando