Así es. Recordemos que las nubes a veces engañan al ojo. Especialmente con las tronadas. Por cierto, ya mismo perderemos el beneficio de la luz solar para el visible y RGB.StormWatch wrote:El low esta mucho mas abajo.hurrizonepr wrote:Subiendo en latitud?...Sea usted el Juez!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html
Huracán Matthew
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
En todo caso amigo Acevedo, sería para las 11pm, si fuese el caso. Los boletines cuando hay ciclón salen a las 5am/11am/5pm/11pm. La noche será interesante, y mañana, y mañana...Acevedo wrote:Mi opinión: Si se mantiene como va, para las 8 pm debe ser TD o TS. Creo que debe estar un poco mas al norte de lo estimado. Esta es solo mi opinión.. Que creen??
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
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Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
Todo puede ocurrir mis amigos!
Ejemplo:
Ejemplo:
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
Sabiendo lo conservadores que son en el NHC seguira con 70% para las 8 de la noche a las 2 am puede que lo suban a 80% mañana a las 8 am lo suben a 90 y a las 2 pm lo suben 100%... esperando la info del cazahuracanes para ver si lo catalogan como ciclon a las 5 de la tarde de mañana
SOLO MI OPINION, NADA OFICIAL, ASI ES QUE CREO QUE ACTUARA EL NHC, AL FINAL ELLOS TIENEN LA ULTIMA PALABRA
SOLO MI OPINION, NADA OFICIAL, ASI ES QUE CREO QUE ACTUARA EL NHC, AL FINAL ELLOS TIENEN LA ULTIMA PALABRA
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
por aqui estoy
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
Eso es una depresión ya. No me sorprendería que a las 11 la declaren. Puede ser un sistema importante y la NHC no va a esperar más. Aun tengo mis dudas del impacto, dudo que sea directo pero hay mucha incertidumbre
Siempre recuerden esto:
Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
carlo yo pienso que deja mucha lluvia este sera el evento de lluvia del año es solo un presentimiento mioCarlosP wrote:Eso es una depresión ya. No me sorprendería que a las 11 la declaren. Puede ser un sistema importante y la NHC no va a esperar más. Aun tengo mis dudas del impacto, dudo que sea directo pero hay mucha incertidumbre
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Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
NWS SJU, forecast discussion oficina de San Juan:
Low pressure is currently 950 miles east southeast of the Windward
Islands and the hurricane center is giving it a 70 percent chance
of developing into a tropical storm by Wednesday. On Wednesday it
is expected to cross the windward islands at about 13 degrees
north, pushing significantly drier air over the local forecast
area. The current forecast drives it almost due west at 13 degrees
north through Saturday night. This would cause it to pass about
300-350 miles south of Puerto Rico`s south coast on Thursday.
Beyond this, models diverge considerably, with some crossing the
Dominican Republic on Sunday and Sunday night and a few driving
toward and across Cuba, one calling for a reversal of track back
under Haiti and one even crossing the southwest corner of Puerto
Rico. The most probable trajectory has been described above.
This most probable scenario would bring increasing winds and seas
beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night, increasing winds and
rains Thursday through Monday or Tuesday. With the current
trajectory, widespread flooding could be possible across Puerto
Rico with storm force winds by Sunday. Other scenarios could bring
worse conditions, with only a few leaving Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands unscathed. Preparations for this reasonable worst
case scenario would be advisable, but it would be too early to
put these plans in to action just yet.
Low pressure is currently 950 miles east southeast of the Windward
Islands and the hurricane center is giving it a 70 percent chance
of developing into a tropical storm by Wednesday. On Wednesday it
is expected to cross the windward islands at about 13 degrees
north, pushing significantly drier air over the local forecast
area. The current forecast drives it almost due west at 13 degrees
north through Saturday night. This would cause it to pass about
300-350 miles south of Puerto Rico`s south coast on Thursday.
Beyond this, models diverge considerably, with some crossing the
Dominican Republic on Sunday and Sunday night and a few driving
toward and across Cuba, one calling for a reversal of track back
under Haiti and one even crossing the southwest corner of Puerto
Rico. The most probable trajectory has been described above.
This most probable scenario would bring increasing winds and seas
beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night, increasing winds and
rains Thursday through Monday or Tuesday. With the current
trajectory, widespread flooding could be possible across Puerto
Rico with storm force winds by Sunday. Other scenarios could bring
worse conditions, with only a few leaving Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands unscathed. Preparations for this reasonable worst
case scenario would be advisable, but it would be too early to
put these plans in to action just yet.
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
q pasara!!!! esto esta mejor q una movie! jajaja
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- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 97L al Este de las Antillas Menores 70%-90%
Via Twitter:
CycloforumsPR @CycloforumsPR
Modelo GFS en su reciente corrida pronostica nuevamente que el invest 97L pasará sobre La Española como ciclón intenso.
CycloforumsPR @CycloforumsPR
Modelo GFS en su reciente corrida pronostica nuevamente que el invest 97L pasará sobre La Española como ciclón intenso.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]