El 91l sube a 80%/80%.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better
organized since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become
a little better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form
on Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.
Forecaster Kimberlain
Post-Tropical - Bonnie
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Invest 91L al Este de Las Bahamas (90/90%)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of
organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally
conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today
or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
huracan_1975
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 630
- Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:59 am
Re: Invest 91L al Este de Las Bahamas (90/90%)
se FORMO LA TD NUMEOR 2 del atlalntico posible T.S. Bonnie esta noche ......
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272049
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River northeastward to Little River
Inlet.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. A reduction of the forward speed is expected by Saturday
night as the system nears the coast.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by Saturday night, making outside
preparations difficult.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches from the upper coast of Georgia
through eastern South Carolina and into southeastern North Carolina.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is expected within the tropical storm warning area.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272049
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River northeastward to Little River
Inlet.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. A reduction of the forward speed is expected by Saturday
night as the system nears the coast.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by Saturday night, making outside
preparations difficult.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches from the upper coast of Georgia
through eastern South Carolina and into southeastern North Carolina.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is expected within the tropical storm warning area.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Invest 91L al Este de Las Bahamas (90/90%)
Tal parece que tendremos el segundo sistema del 2016 y ambos fuera de la Temporada oficial si en fin este lo logra.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 272057
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a
well-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase in
convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone
and advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMR
surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for
this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain
oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours
or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general
west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,
a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the
south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,
resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a
sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the
coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast
of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus
model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the
ECMWF model.
The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface
temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before
moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are
27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving
into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is
expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to
landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model
through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model
after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT42 KNHC 272057
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a
well-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase in
convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone
and advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMR
surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for
this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain
oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours
or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general
west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,
a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the
south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,
resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a
sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the
coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast
of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus
model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the
ECMWF model.
The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface
temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before
moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are
27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving
into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is
expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to
landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model
through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model
after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Depresión Tropical Dos
Este sistema todavia no se gana un nombre propio, veremos si logra hacerlo o se quedara en el olvido. 
000
WTNT42 KNHC 281447
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Satellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection
has increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's
circulation since the previous advisory. However, the depression
remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level
winds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR
surface winds of at least 30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates
were also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is
being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
Microwave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the
cyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six
hours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a
12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did
quite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both
models turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by
a steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the
cyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC
forecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory
track through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward
initial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend
of the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond.
The depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the
Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer
convective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf
waters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which
implies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by
those cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly
vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
more than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is
expected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible
that the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the
Gulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening
just before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS
intensity model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 30.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 31.3N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.4N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 33.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 34.4N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 34.9N 75.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT42 KNHC 281447
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Satellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection
has increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's
circulation since the previous advisory. However, the depression
remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level
winds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR
surface winds of at least 30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates
were also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is
being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
Microwave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the
cyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six
hours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a
12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did
quite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both
models turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by
a steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the
cyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC
forecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory
track through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward
initial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend
of the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond.
The depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the
Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer
convective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf
waters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which
implies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by
those cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly
vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
more than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is
expected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible
that the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the
Gulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening
just before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS
intensity model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 30.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 31.3N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.4N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 33.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 34.4N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 34.9N 75.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Depresión Tropical Dos
Tenemos la segunda del 2016, nace Bonnie.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 79.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 31.1
North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on
Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight as
Bonnie moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Gradual
weakening is forecast on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly to the northwest of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.
RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern
South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.
SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight
and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central
South Carolina through southern North Carolina.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 79.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 31.1
North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on
Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight as
Bonnie moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Gradual
weakening is forecast on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly to the northwest of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.
RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern
South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.
SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight
and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central
South Carolina through southern North Carolina.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Depresión Tropical Dos
Bonnie Bonnie
000
WTNT42 KNHC 282041
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
A 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in
the northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep
convection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance
mission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and
persisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5
hours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston
and Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between
15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind
vectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Bonnie.
The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level
center near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud
canopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has
essentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC
model guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning
toward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a
deep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and
Beaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a
mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the
Mississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the
ridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie
is forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South
Carolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast
by 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models.
Bonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream
sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler
shelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do
not appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on
rather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of
South Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at
least 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant
intensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction
and the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening,
although there could be some convective rain bands over water
producing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and follows the Decay-SHIPS model.
The primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 31.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.5N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 35.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 35.7N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT42 KNHC 282041
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
A 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in
the northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep
convection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance
mission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and
persisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5
hours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston
and Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between
15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind
vectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Bonnie.
The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level
center near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud
canopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has
essentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC
model guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning
toward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a
deep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and
Beaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a
mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the
Mississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the
ridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie
is forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South
Carolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast
by 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models.
Bonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream
sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler
shelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do
not appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on
rather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of
South Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at
least 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant
intensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction
and the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening,
although there could be some convective rain bands over water
producing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and follows the Decay-SHIPS model.
The primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 31.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.5N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 35.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 35.7N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Depresión Tropical Bonnie
Me sorprende lo mucho que ha durado Bonnie. Veremos si logra llegar a junio como ciclón tropical.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Radar and surface observations indicate that Bonnie has moved
eastward and is now located along the coastline just east of
Charleston, South Carolina. A late-arriving RapidSCAT pass from 0029
UTC showed several 25-27 kt surface wind vectors in a rain-free area
50-80 nmi south-southwest of the center. Since that time, some
modest shower activity has developed in that same region, which
supports maintaining Bonnie as a 25-kt depression on this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 040/04 kt. Bonnie is expected to
remain a vertically shallow low pressure system throughout the
forecast period, and should be steered slowly northeastward to
east-northeastward by an approaching 700-500 mb shortwave trough
that is expected to capture the small cyclone within the next 12
hours or so based on recent trends in water vapor satellite imagery.
By Wednesday, Bonnie's forward speed is expected to increase as the
cyclone moves along the northern side of the Bermuda-Azores
subtropical ridge. This steering pattern should take Bonnie and its
remnants across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next 2-3
days, and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean by days 4
and 5. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track, and remains close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.
Bonnie has been convectively challenged for the past 12 hours. Only
narrow bands of weak to moderate convection have persisted near the
center over land during the past 6 hours, and limited convection
been developing over adjacent Atlantic waters. Furthermore, the 0000
UTC Charleston, South Carolina upper-air sounding showed than Bonnie
was barely holding on to warm-core, tropical cyclone status with
only 1 deg C warmer temperatures than the surrounding environment
indicated between 500-300 mb. Given the dry mid-level air that
overlays the cyclone and continued moderate-to-strong southerly
vertical wind shear for the next 48 hours or so, any significant
re-strengthening appears unlikely while Bonnie remains over near the
cool coastal shelf waters. The SHIPS and LGEM models re-strengthen
Bonnie back to tropical storm status by 36 hours, but this seems
unlikely given that the cyclone will be over 22-24 deg C sea-surface
temperatures and in proximity to land. The official intensity
forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain its current intensity of 25 kt
throughout the forecast period and become a remnant low pressure
system by 48 hours. However, the latter could occur sooner than
the official forecast is indicating.
The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy
rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been
reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina,
and additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 33.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 33.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 34.4N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z 35.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z 37.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Ciclón postropical Bonnie
Supongo que no...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 301437
TCDAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Bonnie has been gradually weakening during the past 24 hours. Deep
convection associated the depression dissipated around 0300 UTC, and
the central pressure has risen several millibars since this time
yesterday. Surface observations over land also indicate winds no
higher than 15 kt near Bonnie's center of circulation, however,
winds to around 25 kt are noted over water in a band well removed to
the east. Given the absence of deep convection for about 12 hours,
Bonnie no longer meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical
cyclone and is being designated as a post-tropical/remnant low at
this time. Sporadic convection could re-develop in association with
Bonnie during the next few days, especially over land during peak
diurnal heating. However, re-development into a tropical cyclone is
not anticipated. Global models show the remnant low of Bonnie
transitioning into an extratropical cyclone along a frontal zone
just after 72 hours.
The initial motion is estimated to be 065/02, although visible
satellite imagery indicates little motion during the last few
hours. The track model guidance shows the post-tropical cyclone
generally meandering slowly east-northeastward during the next day
or so in a region of weak southwesterly steering flow. A shortwave
trough entering the Midwest in 2 to 3 days should cause the post-
tropical cyclone to move northeast and then east-northeastward into
the western Atlantic with an increase in forward speed. The new NHC
track forecast is shifted a bit to the left of the previous one and
keeps Bonnie over land during the next 3 days.
There continues to be the potential for Bonnie to generate heavy
rainfall and some flooding over portions of the Carolinas during the
next 2 to 3 days. Future information on Bonnie can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 33.4N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 31/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z 34.2N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 34.8N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z 36.2N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z 37.7N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 38.8N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Ciclón postropical Bonnie
It's alive!!!!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.