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Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:56 pm
by Arlequín
Aqui la ruta de los modelos
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:04 pm
by E. Irizarry
Boletín 11PM
000
WTNT33 KNHC 200236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
...TROPICAL STORM BRET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 43.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:04 pm
by E. Irizarry
Luego del "desnudo" temporero de Bret durante el día, a ganado de nuevo buena organización. Claro está, según el pronostico oficial tenía una ventana más o menos de 36-48 horas para fortalecerse.
Informe 8pm
000
WTNT33 KNHC 202341
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023
...BRET CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:35 pm
by Obi-Wan
Quedo demostrado que el GFS fallo en sus pronósticos iniciales de intensidad y trayectoria. Y por ende aquellos otros modelos regionales o especializados que dependen de el.
El Euro manejó mejor este sistema IMHO.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:55 pm
by E. Irizarry
Obi-Wan wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:35 pm
Quedo demostrado que el GFS fallo en sus pronósticos iniciales de intensidad y trayectoria. Y por ende aquellos otros modelos regionales o especializados que dependen de el.
El Euro manejó mejor este sistema IMHO.
Definitivamente, concuerdo contigo
A pesar que ningun modelo trabaja estos sistemas al 100% por obvias razones, la mayoría de las veces el Euro se destaca más que el GFS, eso si el GFS tiene mejor olfato para la ciclogenesis la mayor parte del tiempo.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:56 pm
by E. Irizarry
000
WTNT33 KNHC 210236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023
...BRET STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE....
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 50.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2023 8:08 am
by E. Irizarry
8AM
821
WTNT33 KNHC 211150
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023
...BRET EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bret rumbo al Caribe
Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:26 pm
by E. Irizarry
5PM, Hay otro avión caza huracán en ruta hacia Bret.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS BRET SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 53.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES