Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Phil Klotzbach no tiró numeros especificos pero da un panorama en general y por lo que se ve va a ser una temporada activa aunque no super activa como la de 2020 porque la Niña no va a estar sino condiciónes Neutrales. Puntos importantes abajo y enlace.
1. AMO becomes very strong in 2021 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 30% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 10% chance.
Typically, seasons with the above-listed ACE values have TC activity as follows:
170 ACE – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
130 ACE – 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes
80 ACE – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
50 ACE – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-12.pdf
1. AMO becomes very strong in 2021 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 30% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 10% chance.
Typically, seasons with the above-listed ACE values have TC activity as follows:
170 ACE – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
130 ACE – 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes
80 ACE – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
50 ACE – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-12.pdf
Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Tambien sale TSR con los numeros 16/7/3.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2021
anticipates a season with activity ~20% above the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 10-year
norm level. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2021 and employs data through
to the end of November 2020. TSR’s main predictor at this extended lead (6 months before the 2021
hurricane season starts) is the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and
tropical North Atlantic. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) and
vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. At present TSR anticipates that the July-September
2021 trade wind speed will be slightly weaker than normal – due mainly to our expectation for weak La
Niña conditions to occur at this time - and thus will have an enhancing effect on North Atlantic hurricane
activity in 2021. The precision of TSR’s real-time December outlooks for upcoming North Atlantic
hurricane activity between 1980 and 2020 is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2021.pdf
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2021
anticipates a season with activity ~20% above the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 10-year
norm level. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2021 and employs data through
to the end of November 2020. TSR’s main predictor at this extended lead (6 months before the 2021
hurricane season starts) is the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and
tropical North Atlantic. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) and
vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. At present TSR anticipates that the July-September
2021 trade wind speed will be slightly weaker than normal – due mainly to our expectation for weak La
Niña conditions to occur at this time - and thus will have an enhancing effect on North Atlantic hurricane
activity in 2021. The precision of TSR’s real-time December outlooks for upcoming North Atlantic
hurricane activity between 1980 and 2020 is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2021.pdf
- habanahurricane
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Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Será una temporada activa al parecer
- habanahurricane
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Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Algunos años análogos para esta temporada. 1899. 1950. 1956. 1996. 1999. 2008. 2012. Algunos huracanes de esos años Gustav. Ike.Paloma. Lenny. Sandy. Lili
- habanahurricane
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Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
![Razz :P](./images/smilies/icon_razz.gif)
Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
El pronosticador de Huracanes Joe Bastardi saca su pronóstico para la temporada 2021 y los numeros son entre 16-22 tormentas. Para Abril el va a sacar la grafica de areas de mayor peligro y favorecidas con aguas más calientes y menos vientos cortantes.
El pone la grafica del modelo Europeo hasta Septiembre donde tiene aire seco en el Caribe pero humedad al norte del Caribe y el norte del Golfo de Mexico.
Nuestro parecer es que es muy temprano hacer el tipo de pronóstico de posibles trayectorias ya que estamos hablando de 5-6 meses y el error es grandísimo igual que el pronóstico de precipitación que el Europeo siempre lo tiene seco.
En palabras sencillas según Bastardi, las tormentas que se formen van a tener el area del Atlantico Occidental mas fertil para amenazar la costa este de E.U. pero otra vez es temprano.
Bastardi sobre el corredor Africa al Caribe.
I think what this means overall is that we will have a below activity in the Main Development Region. Similar to the year of Dorian, the storms are likely to reach their strongest point outside of the Main Development Region.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/uDQpXtJ.png)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/mSwLMpY.png)
El pone la grafica del modelo Europeo hasta Septiembre donde tiene aire seco en el Caribe pero humedad al norte del Caribe y el norte del Golfo de Mexico.
Nuestro parecer es que es muy temprano hacer el tipo de pronóstico de posibles trayectorias ya que estamos hablando de 5-6 meses y el error es grandísimo igual que el pronóstico de precipitación que el Europeo siempre lo tiene seco.
En palabras sencillas según Bastardi, las tormentas que se formen van a tener el area del Atlantico Occidental mas fertil para amenazar la costa este de E.U. pero otra vez es temprano.
Bastardi sobre el corredor Africa al Caribe.
I think what this means overall is that we will have a below activity in the Main Development Region. Similar to the year of Dorian, the storms are likely to reach their strongest point outside of the Main Development Region.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/uDQpXtJ.png)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/mSwLMpY.png)
Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
CSU pronostica una temporada activa con 17 tormentas,8 Huracanes y 4. intensos de categoria 3 o más. Razónes principales son falta de El Niño y aguas calientes en Atlantico. Hay un 58% de tener azote de Huracán de categoria 3 o más en el Caribe.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/cTiT3bu.jpg)
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/cTiT3bu.jpg)
- habanahurricane
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Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2021
Cada vez falta menos
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