Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
662
WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020
The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling
in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.
Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to
the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges,
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
in that direction at days 3 through 5.
Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear
and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend
and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.
2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020
The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling
in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.
Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to
the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges,
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
in that direction at days 3 through 5.
Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear
and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend
and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.
2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Georges_98
- Invest
- Posts: 227
- Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 2:27 am
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Buenas tardes, Villa y demás compañeros. Monitoreando el desarrollo que presentan los modelos, me encontré con una fuerte onda saliendo de las costas de Senegal que el GFS desarrolla con fuerte evolución y la coloca en ruta hacia nuestra isla. Claro, estamos hablando de 15 días o más, pero en este período es importante darle seguimiento a lo que indican los modelos más "certeros" por así decirlo. Estamos en el pico de la temporada y tengo un mal presentimiento con lo "bien" que nos ha tratado esta super agresiva temporada. Ojalá sea un mal pronóstico.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Saludos Georges_98 ya estamos a menos días y ese mal presentimiento esta creciendo,está difícil otro cantazo categoría 4 o 5.Georges_98 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:15 pm Buenas tardes, Villa y demás compañeros. Monitoreando el desarrollo que presentan los modelos, me encontré con una fuerte onda saliendo de las costas de Senegal que el GFS desarrolla con fuerte evolución y la coloca en ruta hacia nuestra isla. Claro, estamos hablando de 15 días o más, pero en este período es importante darle seguimiento a lo que indican los modelos más "certeros" por así decirlo. Estamos en el pico de la temporada y tengo un mal presentimiento con lo "bien" que nos ha tratado esta super agresiva temporada. Ojalá sea un mal pronóstico.
♂️♂️♂️♂️♂️
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Me pregunto si podria tener un come back
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Georges_98
- Invest
- Posts: 227
- Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 2:27 am
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Buenas noches, compañero Arlequín. Aunque el movimiento OSO es atípico para la formación de sistemas, va a ser interesante ver ese movimiento luego del empuje que le suministrará la HB Bermuda en los próximos días hacia nosotros. En realidad, tomando en cuenta las condiciones favorables para evolución de sistemas que está presentando el Atlántico ahora mismo, no sería descartable un come back del difunto René, que tuvo que lidiar muchísimo con el mal ambiente que prevaleció en el Oeste africano en los días de su surgimiento. Vamos a estar atentos.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Asi es amigo... al principio pensaba que iba ser momentanio ese movimiento pero veo que los modelos han sido constantes en mantenerlo mas alla de 120 horasGeorges_98 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:10 pm Buenas noches, compañero Arlequín. Aunque el movimiento OSO es atípico para la formación de sistemas, va a ser interesante ver ese movimiento luego del empuje que le suministrará la HB Bermuda en los próximos días hacia nosotros. En realidad, tomando en cuenta las condiciones favorables para evolución de sistemas que está presentando el Atlántico ahora mismo, no sería descartable un come back del difunto René, que tuvo que lidiar muchísimo con el mal ambiente que prevaleció en el Oeste africano en los días de su surgimiento. Vamos a estar atentos.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Rene.
Aparentemente no se quiere dar por vencida la temporada de huracanes...quiere ver una mas cerca de PR...oh Dios
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."