Re: Pronostico de los expertos para temporada 2020
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:37 am
TSR pronostica en su pronostico de Abril 16/8/3.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020
anticipates a season with likely above-norm activity. Based on current and projected climate signals,
Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be 25% above the 1950-2019 long-term norm and
5-10% above the recent 2010-2019 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th
November 2020 and employs data through to the end of March 2020. TSR raises its extended range
forecast issued in mid-December 2019 due to updated climate signals pointing towards environmental
fields in August-September 2020 that are more favourable for Atlantic hurricane activity than thought
previously. These anticipated fields are warmer than normal tropical North Atlantic water temperatures
and neutral-to-weak La Niña ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions. In order to quantify the
current large uncertainty in anticipated hurricane activity in 2020 we introduce robust forecast probability
of exceedance plots for the benefit of users. These data give the current chance of each hurricane
number/activity outcome occurring in 2020. Updated probability of exceedance plots will be included in
TSR’s further forecast releases for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2020.pdf
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020
anticipates a season with likely above-norm activity. Based on current and projected climate signals,
Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be 25% above the 1950-2019 long-term norm and
5-10% above the recent 2010-2019 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th
November 2020 and employs data through to the end of March 2020. TSR raises its extended range
forecast issued in mid-December 2019 due to updated climate signals pointing towards environmental
fields in August-September 2020 that are more favourable for Atlantic hurricane activity than thought
previously. These anticipated fields are warmer than normal tropical North Atlantic water temperatures
and neutral-to-weak La Niña ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions. In order to quantify the
current large uncertainty in anticipated hurricane activity in 2020 we introduce robust forecast probability
of exceedance plots for the benefit of users. These data give the current chance of each hurricane
number/activity outcome occurring in 2020. Updated probability of exceedance plots will be included in
TSR’s further forecast releases for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2020.pdf
