048
WTNT43 KNHC 032040
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over
the eastern Atlantic has become better defined during day, with
rainbands forming on the eastern side of the circulation. This
structure is good enough for a tropical depression, and the initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which agrees with earlier ASCAT passes
that showed 25-30 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. A general northwestward
motion is anticipated during the next several days, faster by the
weekend, as the system is steered by a strengthening eastern
Atlantic ridge. One source of uncertainty in the future track is
how much the cyclone is affected by a developing mid-level low
around 25N45W in a few days. This feature could briefly induce a
north-northwestward motion on Friday, and later west-northwestward
on day 5 depending on exactly how close the new tropical cyclone
gets to the mid-level low. For now it is best not to bite off on
any particular model solution, since the intensity and depth of the
cyclone isn't certain at this range. Thus, the forecast is close
to the Atlantic model consensus TVCA, shaded a bit on the fast side
assuming the system keeps some vertical depth.
Although the depression is forecast to be in a low-shear environment
during the next couple of days, marginal water temperatures should
keep the strengthening rate modest. The intensity forecast is
complicated beyond that point due to the system's interaction with
the mid-level low, drier air in the mid-levels, and increasing
waters temperatures. This mixed bag of factors makes the forecast
rather murky, with any intensity changes at longer range having low
predictability at this point. Therefore, the forecast is leveled
off at long range, similar to the NOAA corrected-consensus model
HCCA, but this uncertain forecast could require a great deal of
revision later tonight or tomorrow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 32.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 33.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.4N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 26.2N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 30.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle
Re: Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle
Se forma la Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 040854
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted
slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new
forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.
During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As
a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT43 KNHC 040854
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted
slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new
forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.
During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As
a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle
Straight to Fishland 
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Re: Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle
Ahora se espera que sea Huracán.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Gabrielle
000
WTNT43 KNHC 050231
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
South to southwesterly shear is affecting the overall organization
of Gabrielle this evening. A recent scatterometer pass indicated
that the low-level center was located on the southern edge of
weakening convection, and to the south of a mid-level circulation
apparent in infrared satellite imagery. This same scatterometer pass
showed an expanded wind field in the northwest quadrant as well as
45-kt peak winds, and this initial intensity is in agreement with
the latest subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
The shear is not expected to abate for the next 48 hours, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain marginal through 36
hours. Therefore little to no change in intensity is expected from
Gabrielle during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, shear is
expected to decrease for a few days while the cyclone moves over
waters warmer than 28 C. This should allow for some gradual
intensification, and Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous
one and very near the intensity from the corrected consensus HCCA.
Gabrielle has been moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. This motion
should continue for the next day or so as the cyclone is steered by
a subtropical ridge to its northeast. After that time, a mid- to
upper-level low is forecast to develop to the west of Gabrielle,
which will help to increase the forward motion late this week and
over the weekend. There was a notable westward shift in the guidance
beyond 72 hours possibly due to the interaction of the cyclone with
the aforementioned upper low. After 96 hours, an approaching
mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north then
northeast. The official forecast track is very similar to the
previous one through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly westward
thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
WTNT43 KNHC 050231
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019
South to southwesterly shear is affecting the overall organization
of Gabrielle this evening. A recent scatterometer pass indicated
that the low-level center was located on the southern edge of
weakening convection, and to the south of a mid-level circulation
apparent in infrared satellite imagery. This same scatterometer pass
showed an expanded wind field in the northwest quadrant as well as
45-kt peak winds, and this initial intensity is in agreement with
the latest subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
The shear is not expected to abate for the next 48 hours, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain marginal through 36
hours. Therefore little to no change in intensity is expected from
Gabrielle during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, shear is
expected to decrease for a few days while the cyclone moves over
waters warmer than 28 C. This should allow for some gradual
intensification, and Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous
one and very near the intensity from the corrected consensus HCCA.
Gabrielle has been moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. This motion
should continue for the next day or so as the cyclone is steered by
a subtropical ridge to its northeast. After that time, a mid- to
upper-level low is forecast to develop to the west of Gabrielle,
which will help to increase the forward motion late this week and
over the weekend. There was a notable westward shift in the guidance
beyond 72 hours possibly due to the interaction of the cyclone with
the aforementioned upper low. After 96 hours, an approaching
mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north then
northeast. The official forecast track is very similar to the
previous one through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly westward
thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto