Saludos a los amigos foristas:
Por falta de tiempo y porque abrir un tópico como este requiere darle seguimiento, hace tiempo no lo hacia. No obstante, ante el peligro que representa este sistema para Texas y Louisiana decidí abrirlo con la esperanza que más amigos foristas escriban en el mismo. Esto porque muchos tenemos familia o amistades en NOLA y en el estado de Texas.
También para beneficio de los que nos leen.
Desde hace 4 días he estado informando a amistades y familia. Les he indicado que entren al foro incluyendo también que estén pendientes al NHC y a las noticias locales.
Aquí en la más reciente información provista provista por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk...please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 86.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion
is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart"
Tropical Depression Barry Final Public Advisory
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Tropical Depression Barry Final Public Advisory
Last edited by ROCKstormSJ4315 on Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:36 am, edited 4 times in total.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Potential Cyclone # 2
El ultimo TWD del NHC en Miami:
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.
Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.
2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.
3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.
4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart"
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.
Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.
2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.
3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.
4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Potential Cyclone # 2, pre- Barry
Me estan informando a traves del celular que a esta hora llueve fuertemente en el area de River Ridge, LA
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
Re: Potential Cyclone # 2, pre- Barry
Saludos ROCKstorm definitivamente con este sistema las posibilidades de desarrollo son muy variada con los modelos desde una Tormenta hasta un huracán mayor, veremos qué pasa.
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Potential Cyclone # 2, pre- Barry
Saludos Villafane:
En efecto eso es lo que me preocupa, que puede ser huracan antes de acercarse a LA. Con las lluvias de hoy ya en NOLA hubo inundaciones y cortes de energia. Yo estuve en un lugar donde el rio Mississippi literalmente estaba a una altura mayor que las casas.
. Cuando ese rio se desborda hay que temerle. Bordea a NOLA practicamente. Por otro lado las tormentas electricas ahi son muy severas. Me toco estar en dos momentos bajo aviso de tornado, menos mal no ocurrio.Tambien experimente los famosos "Funnels" a cada rato.El sistema se movio algo mas al sur de lo previsto. Mientras mas baje, mas peligro de que tome fuerza antes de llegar a tierra cuando cambie su rumbo hacia el norte en direccion a LA segun la trayectoria proyectada al momento.
Es recomendable que mas amigos foristas aporten al topico. Hay muchos hispanos alla. Mientras yo estuve alli le di mucha promocion a este foro. Aqui entran muchos "guess" que lo mas probable no puedan ver lo que se escribe en la otra pagina de FB.
Nota: Opinion de aficionado, no es la version oficial. Abajo aparece la informacion oficial de el NHC con la informacion oficial. Mantengase atento a los boletines que prepara el NHC, el NWS en NOLA y los medios de comunicacion locales.
Aqui la ultima informacion del NHC:
"BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.
Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila"
El ultimo TWO del NHC:
"WTNT42 KNHC 110846
TCDAT2
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
The convective activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation
is not well defined at this time. Both surface and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt. The modest
northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further
development. Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today,
and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is
indicated. The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were
in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane
status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the
coast.
During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely
moved due to weak steering currents. However, a westward or
260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon. The system is
heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should
induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north
during the next 3 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast continues to
be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has
been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the
multi-model ensemble TVCA. It should be noted that track errors
are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more
mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the
track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high at the moment.
Key Messages:
1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.
2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.
3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.
4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 27.5N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
Re: Potential Cyclone # 2, pre- Barry
Nace la Tormenta Tropical Barry.
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Tormenta Tropical Barry
Ultimos boletines emitidos por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday.
On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and
Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven"
"Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.
Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.
3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven"
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday.
On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and
Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven"
"Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.
Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.
3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Tormenta Tropical Barry
Aunque el sistema sigue algo desorganizado aún existe la posibilidad de que durante el día de hoy adquiera mayor intensidad. El peligro para NOLA sigue siendo la cantidad de lluvia que puede caer y por tanto el riesgo de inundaciones. Tome en cuenta el problema con el rio Mississippi que atraviesa la ciudad. Hay posibilidad tambien que ciertas areas de la costa experimenten vientos mayores a las 74 millas.
Es importante hoy estar muy pendientes a los boletines locales del NWS y los medios locales.
Aquí la última información provista por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019
...BARRY CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 89.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin later
today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and
then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Barry could become a hurricane Friday night or early
Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is
expected after Barry moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila"
Es importante hoy estar muy pendientes a los boletines locales del NWS y los medios locales.
Aquí la última información provista por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019
...BARRY CRAWLING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 89.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin later
today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and
then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Barry could become a hurricane Friday night or early
Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is
expected after Barry moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Re: Tormenta Tropical Barry
Se convierte en el primer huracan de la temporada. Aunque en algunos lugares el viento puede causar danos, el peligro mayor siguen siendo las lluvias y los posibles tornados como ocurrio anoche con el aviso de tornados.
Perdi comunicacion con las personas que conozco alla, supongo a causa de la falla en energia electrica en varios lugares.
Pendiente a la informacion provista por el NHC, las oficina local del NWS y a los medios de noticias locales.
Aqui el ultimo boletin del NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast
from Cameron to Sabine Pass.
The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has
been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Barry is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will
move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana
tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean
Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of
the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm
Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven"
Perdi comunicacion con las personas que conozco alla, supongo a causa de la falla en energia electrica en varios lugares.
Pendiente a la informacion provista por el NHC, las oficina local del NWS y a los medios de noticias locales.
Aqui el ultimo boletin del NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast
from Cameron to Sabine Pass.
The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has
been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Barry is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will
move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana
tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean
Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of
the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm
Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
-
ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 888
- Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
- Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR
Tropical Storm Barry
Aun cuando ya no es huracan, la amenaza principal de lluvias e inundaciones en algunos sectores continua al igual que la amenaza de tornados.
Aqui la ultima informacion sobre Barry provista por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 93.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Mouth of Atchafalaya River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across the western portion of central and
northern Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the
center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland,
and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions could persist
through the morning.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and eastern
Arkansas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi"
:
Aqui la ultima informacion sobre Barry provista por el NHC en Miami:
"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
...BARRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 93.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Mouth of Atchafalaya River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across the western portion of central and
northern Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the
center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland,
and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later
today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake
Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as
the storm moves inland.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to
lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions could persist
through the morning.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and eastern
Arkansas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi"
:
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay