Tormenta Kirk

[Laniña2016]

¿Cómo siguen los vientos, que pueden afectar a Kirk?

[cg1672]

¿Cómo siguen los vientos, que pueden afectar a Kirk?

Por lo visto en las últimas imágenes del satélite, se puede ver que el centro está quedando expuesto. El sistema en pleno proceso de decoplamiento a causa de esos mismos vientos.

[Laniña2016]

¿Cómo siguen los vientos, que pueden afectar a Kirk?

Por lo visto en las últimas imágenes del satélite, se puede ver que el centro está quedando expuesto. El sistema en pleno proceso de decoplamiento a causa de esos mismos vientos.

Gracias

[Villafañe]

Si el centro es expuesto, toda la noche estuvo expuesto o semi expuesto, el shear continúa haciéndole la vida de cuadritos, pero su estructura está bien solida, solo nos queda seguir observando.

[Villafañe]

Por otro lado el caza huracanes midió presión más baja y vientos fuertes en el cuadrante oeste y noroeste de Kirk 55kt y 60kt

[lolo22]

[lolo22]

[WeatherfanPR]

Saludos a todos. Kirk ha comenzado a sentir notablemente el efecto del wind shear pues como vemos en la mas reciente imagen del satelite, su centro ha quedado expuesto. Creo que el proceso de debilitamiento progresivo y sin oportuindad de fortalecerse ha comenzado.

Hay que ver como evoluciona la conveccion pues sabemos que estos sistemas en su etapa de remanentes pueden desarrollar tronadas en un patron desorganizado asi que es cuestion de esperar si realmente van a ocurrir esas 2 a 4 pulgadas con 6 en lugares aislados. Muy bien pueden haber areas que no reciban nada o muy poco de lluvia. Hay que seguir vigilando ciertamente.

[WeatherfanPR]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Increasing vertical shear is having a notable influence on the
structure of Kirk, as visible satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center of the cyclone is now exposed to the west of the
main area of deep convection. Nonetheless, the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters still found strong winds in that convection. In fact, based
on SFMR and flight-level winds from the Hurricane Hunters, the
advisory intensity of 45 kt may be a conservative estimate. With
the increasing vertical decoupling of the vortex and even stronger
shear associated with upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean
Sea, weakening is likely over the next couple of days. Kirk should
degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, if not sooner. The
official forecast is close to the multi-model intensity consensus,
IVCN.

The storm continues moving west-northwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area just
to the east of Florida is likely to steer Kirk on a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next few days. Some
further slowing of forward speed is expected as the high weakens
slightly. The NHC track forecast is very close to the latest HFIP
corrected consensus prediction.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although
Kirk is becoming disorganized, strong winds are still occurring
over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds are still
likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm
Warning area later today. Higher winds are especially likely over
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Estimados foristas:

Aun cuando las espectativas son de que Kirk llegue a nuestra area como depresion tropical, debemos tener claro que las condiciones del tiempo se van a deteriorar manana y hay riesgo de inundaciones y viento fuerte en las lluvias. En vista de la fragilidad de la infraestructura aun, mantenganse pendiente a los informes de la oficina local del NWS en Carolina.

Vientos de fuerza de tormenta "batatera" de mas de 30 millas puede traernos problemas.

Es incierto aun cuanto viento y lluvia trae Kirk. Al momento sige su centro, aunque expuesto, casi intacto y la conveccion al este del sistema tiene mucha lluvia y vientos. He visto fotos de las inundaciones que ha generado ya en alguna de las islas del Caribe. Cualquier giro mas al norte del sistema, aumenta el riesgo de mas lluvia.

Aqui el ultimo AFD del NWS en Carolina:

"Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
853 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

.UPDATE...Showers persist in moderate to fresh northeast flow
across the area as Tropical Storm Kirk moves through the Windward
Islands south of Guadeloupe. The sounding came in quite wet at
1.97 inches of precipitable water and considerably wetter than the
GFS was forecasting. Nevertheless the current forecast looks on
track with high POPS in eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico and
around the U.S. Virgin Islands. Only adjustments to the afternoon were
to increase POPS in the northeast interior part of Puerto Rico in
the evening period and hold interior minimum temperatures tonight
slightly cooler...

...
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018/

SYNOPSIS...Tropical storm Kirk is still expected to weaken
significantly and move south of the local area late Friday into
Saturday. Moisture and thunderstorm activity will reach the local
area for that same time period. The upper trough to the northwest
of the local islands should contribute to persistent thunderstorm
development. Flash flood watch is in effect, High surf advisory,
coastal flood watch, and high risk of rip currents as well as a
small craft advisory are all in effect through this weekend.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms due to the local effects over PR should
dissipate by this evening. Isolated to scattered showers expected
overnight across the local waters, USVI and eastern PR. Much
deeper moisture, associated with Kirk is expected to move in by
Friday afternoon, which will combine with the local orographic
effects as well as the upper level trough to the west northwest of
the local islands, which provides upper level dynamics for
thunderstorm support. This means that the probability of
significant showers and thunderstorms will increase significantly
starting on Friday and lasting through Saturday, especially for
the eastern half of PR, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. because of
that we have issued a flash flood watch. The marine and surf zone
conditions will also deteriorate not only because of Kirk but also
because a long period northerly swell will invade the local
waters on Friday as well.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

..From Previous Discussion...

Moisture associated to what is now Tropical Storm Kirk will
persist across the region through early next week. High moisture
content and favorable upper level conditions will enhance shower
and thunderstorm development across most of the forecast area on
Sunday. Although upper level conditions will become less favorable
on Monday, there will be enough moisture content that combined
with local effects and diurnal heating will result in afternoon
convection across portions of the interior and western Puerto
Rico, as well as downwind from El Yunque and the local islands
during this period. Overnight and early morning streamer-like
showers are also possible.