Tormenta Isaac
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3721
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 92L 40/90%
GFS 06z .... También....
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3721
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 92L 40/90%
50-90
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3721
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
El EURO 00z
Su reciente corrida (Gif)
Su reciente corrida (Gif)
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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hurrizonepr
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 451
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
Buen dia a todos: Al parecer el GFS y el Euro comienzan a coincidir bastante en trayectoria del hasta ahora invest 92.Esto no me gusta,pues ambos son grandes herramientas en ese aspecto, pero aun los margenes de error son inmensos y hay muchos "jugadores " adicionales que incidiran sin duda en trayectoria e intensidad futura.
Observar es lo que nos queda,y prepararnos para cualquier panorama sin alarma.
Observar es lo que nos queda,y prepararnos para cualquier panorama sin alarma.
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3721
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
....
Last edited by StormWatch on Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
Ahora los modelos buscando alCaribe.
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
El 92l no se a formado aún, sin embargo los modelos anticipan su desarrollo y si no hay sistema desarrollado las corridas solo serán las mejores guías a largo plazo, pero con márgenes de error significativa como siempre nos recalca nuestro amigo Rockstorm. Por ahora revisando los últimos detalles de preparación por si eventualmente nos afecta algún sistema ciclónico. Hay mucha incertidumbre todavía en trayectoria, fuerza ect..., así que ojo.
Re: Invest 92L 50/90%
Hola!
Descartando algunos modelos de trayectoria con valores atipicos (outliers), a la fecha de hoy esto podria ser una ruta de consenso para el invest 92L a cinco y siete dias respectivamente.
Si fuera cierto y se comprueba el pronostico, un sistema en desarrollo en la vecindad de la 14N-40W en 5 dias y 15N-50W en 7 dias vale la pena seguir monitoreandolo.
Descartando algunos modelos de trayectoria con valores atipicos (outliers), a la fecha de hoy esto podria ser una ruta de consenso para el invest 92L a cinco y siete dias respectivamente.
Si fuera cierto y se comprueba el pronostico, un sistema en desarrollo en la vecindad de la 14N-40W en 5 dias y 15N-50W en 7 dias vale la pena seguir monitoreandolo.