CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Basicamente lo que se entiende es que mas sera la lluvia que un evento de vientos sostenidos

YankeeStorm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:41 am

CarlosP wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:40 am No habia comentado porque subestime a Beryl. Error! Ese core compacto la beneficia ahora pero se puede debilitar facilmente, aunque la zona de tronadas al sur esta empezando a "wrap" alrededor de ella. Los vientos cortantes deben debilitarla pero la direccion empujara la nubosidad sobre PR cuando este al sur. Cuidense. Lamentablemente me perdere este evento

O sea q NOS parte como KRAYOLA E KINDER?

El centro se debe quedar al sur a una distancia, pero los vientos cortantes le van a dar en ese punto de Sureste a Noroeste, entonces la nubosidad asociada se estableceria sobre PR cuando este cerca de Ponce y Cabo Rojo, mas como lluvias fuertes que vientos sostenidos. Me sorprenderia, de mantenerse la distancia, que se registren vientos de mas de 40+ millas al sur (sostenidos). Probablemente se desmorone al tocar el arco de las antillas, todo depende de como los vientos cortantes se comporten, y como el aire seco entre al centro del sistema.

CarlosP wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:47 am

YankeeStorm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:41 am

CarlosP wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:40 am No habia comentado porque subestime a Beryl. Error! Ese core compacto la beneficia ahora pero se puede debilitar facilmente, aunque la zona de tronadas al sur esta empezando a "wrap" alrededor de ella. Los vientos cortantes deben debilitarla pero la direccion empujara la nubosidad sobre PR cuando este al sur. Cuidense. Lamentablemente me perdere este evento

O sea q NOS parte como KRAYOLA E KINDER?

El centro se debe quedar al sur a una distancia, pero los vientos cortantes le van a dar en ese punto de Sureste a Noroeste, entonces la nubosidad asociada se estableceria sobre PR cuando este cerca de Ponce y Cabo Rojo, mas como lluvias fuertes que vientos sostenidos. Me sorprenderia, de mantenerse la distancia, que se registren vientos de mas de 40+ millas al sur (sostenidos). Probablemente se desmorone al tocar el arco de las antillas, todo depende de como los vientos cortantes se comporten, y como el aire seco entre al centro del sistema.

Muy bien, entonces el avión nos dará la información q necesitamos este domingo. Gracias por contestar!

Es cierto q el modelo europeo pone a Beryl entrando por PR???


HELPPPPPPPPPP!

modelo euro

boleco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:10 pm modelo euro

Creo q tenemos .................Hmmmmmmmmmmm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other
islands tonight or early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.[late Friday].None.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the
Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once
Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system
may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity
of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
(55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Saludos,
Ada Monzón indicó a las 4:03 PM que el sistema pasaría de 50 a 100 millas de PR. Pregunto, al estar tan lejos y su ancho es de solo 40 millas, tendremos esperanzas de recibir lluvia en Lajas. Es que la necesitamos con desesperación, estamos extremadamente secos y se esta afectando ya la agricultura. Si alguien tiene algún comentario se lo agraecería. No obstante, se que todavía esta muy lejos para conclusiones certeras, pero este foro cuenta con gente con mucha experiencia y conocumientos.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...BERYL CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 48.3W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other
islands later tonight or early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center
of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and
cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the
Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once
Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system
may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity
of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Llegue ahora a casa y esta raro que nadie este escribiendo desde la tarde. Parece que hay o habia problemas con entrar a el foro o con los celulares. Tengo amistades que no tienen senal en el celular. Cualquiera de los dos problemas, espero se arregle pronto.