CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Vaya vaya, parece ser que por fin se animo el 94L, pero al parecer tiene otro pensar distinto a doña Irma

8pm

Up 50% - 80%

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Los modelos lo inician al suroeste de donde estaba a las 18z.

UP

60% - 90%

As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data
indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical
storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression
or tropical storm will form within the next few days while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A las 11 tendremos las proxima TD:
AL, 94, 2017090512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 387W, 30, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

Se formó la Tormenta Tropical José
000
WTNT32 KNHC 051454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Trayectoria de la Tormenta Tropical Jose

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 12.3°N 39.1°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

.

Jose sigue calladito pero a su pasito tun tun

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060231
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Jose continues to gradually strengthen. Geostationary and
microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system
is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection.
Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center. The
initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a
T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt. A
slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and
southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower
northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in
the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there
is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when
and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track
forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the various consensus models.

The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will
likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major
hurricane strength by 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in
northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening
trend and cause some weakening. The NHC intensity follows the ICON
and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi