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Huracan Gert

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hurricanetrack
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Re: Invest 99L al Este de Bahamas (80-80%)

Post by hurricanetrack »

GERT. La 7ma!

000
WTNT33 KNHC 132031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GERT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day
or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ROCKstormSJ4315
Tormenta Tropical
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Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Tormenta Gert

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Segundo huracan de la temporada.

Aqui la ultima informacion del NHC en Miami:

"BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...GERT BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.3 West. Gert is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to
Long Island during the next couple of days. Swells are also
expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT."
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Cycloneye
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Re: Huracan Gert

Post by Cycloneye »

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...GERT BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Northerly shear of about 20 kt was inhibiting Gert overnight. A
pair of microwave passes around 0900 UTC showed that the mid-level
center was displaced about 20 n mi south-southeast of the
low-level center. Since the time of the earlier microwave passes,
outflow in the northwest quadrant has become re-established,
suggesting that the shear may be lessening. The initial intensity
has been held at 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification
from TAFB. Environmental diagnostics from SHIPS indicate that the
shear should continue to decrease for about the next 24 h, which
should allow for a brief window of intensification. The GFS, ECMWF,
and UKMET all indicate that extratropical transition will begin
sometime between 36 h and 48 h, while the hurricane crosses a strong
SST gradient and the shear increases above 30 kt. Gert is forecast
to become fully extratropical about a day later.

The initial motion is 015/9 kt. Gert has finally begun to round
the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and should begin
accelerating northeastward later today. The track guidance is
tightly clustered for the first 48 h of the forecast. Beyond two
days, there is some along-track spread in the models. The GFS
forecasts that Gert will move faster and remain separated from a
large extratropical low for nearly 5 days, while the ECMWF and UKMET
forecast Gert to move slower, causing it to merge with the
extratropical low sooner. The official forecast splits the
difference between these scenarios for now and indicates that Gert
will be absorbed by the extratropical low shortly after 96 h.

Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.
These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 32.8N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 34.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 36.7N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 38.9N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 41.3N 53.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 48.8N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z 54.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Cycloneye
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Re: Huracan Gert

Post by Cycloneye »

Sube a categoria 2.

...GERT BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 62.4W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
--------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

Cloud tops with temperatures colder than -65 deg C have wrapped
almost entirely around Gert's center, although eye temperatures
have been fluctuating all day. Dvorak intensity estimates vary
widely, from T4.5 from TAFB to around T5.5 from the UW-CIMSS ADT,
and since a warm eye has been unable to persist for an extended
period of time, the initial intensity is raised conservatively to
85 kt. This makes Gert the first category 2 hurricane of the
season. The window of opportunity for additional strengthening
appears to be closing. Gert will be moving over the colder waters
north of the Gulf Stream in about 12-18 hours, and southwesterly
shear will be increasing to well over 30 kt in about 12 hours.
Therefore, a fast weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday,
with Gert becoming a tropical storm by 36 hours. The FSU
phase-space diagrams indicate that Gert should be extratropical
just after 36 hours, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all have the
cyclone being absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north
Atlantic by day 4.

Acceleration continues with the initial motion now 055/27 kt. With
Gert firmly embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the
hurricane's forward speed should increase for the next 24 hours,
followed by some deceleration as the cyclone begins to interact
with a large cut-off low moving east of Atlantic Canada. Most of
the track guidance is a little faster on this cycle, although the
ECMWF is significantly slower. The new NHC forecast is nudged a
little faster from 12-48 hours, but not too fast given the latest
ECMWF solution. The post-tropical portion of the track, intensity,
and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance from NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.

Swells from Gert are affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic coast of
the United States, and are expected to spread northward to New
England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 38.7N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 40.7N 56.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 44.3N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 48.3N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 51.6N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z 54.3N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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