CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

TWO 8Am 7-17-17 : Sube a 50-50 %:
"An area of low pressure located about 750 miles east of the Windward
Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity continues to show some signs of
organization, but the system appears to lack a well-defined center
at this time. Environmental conditions are conducive for some
additional development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles
late Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable
upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles
beginning late Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent."

Mirando el "floater' parece estar desarrollando un centro por la 10N -51W.:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

TWD 2PM 7-17-17:
"A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N51W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to
12N between 51W and 53W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. Less favorable upper-level winds are
expected to hinder additional development after that time. It is
expected that this system may bring locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles beginning on Tuesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route in order
to investigate the situation. The chance for formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook...MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC...
for more details."

"BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES"

Fea...feisima la tormenta, pero mas fea la trayectoria a cerca de 500 millas al sur___De todas maneras...uelcon Don!

hurrizonepr wrote:TWD 2PM 7-17-17:
"A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N51W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to
12N between 51W and 53W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. Less favorable upper-level winds are
expected to hinder additional development after that time. It is
expected that this system may bring locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles beginning on Tuesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route in order
to investigate the situation. The chance for formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook...MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC...
for more details."

Aqui tenemos la onda esa insignificante esa que solos dos comentábamos.. Vamos a ver que se cocina en ella.

Katrina 23 escribio:
"Aqui tenemos la onda esa insignificante esa que solos dos comentábamos.. Vamos a ver que se cocina en ella. "

Asi es, esto parece ser solo para "entretenimiento" o "simulacro" , pues no se espera mucho de esto y cuando entre al Caribe debe haber "despeluzamiento" Jajaja. Pero para mediados de Julio ir por la letra "D" esta mas que bien . Saludos.

Gran inpulso de tronadas en el centro en estos momentos:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

katrina23 wrote:

hurrizonepr wrote:TWD 2PM 7-17-17:
"A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N51W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to
12N between 51W and 53W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. Less favorable upper-level winds are
expected to hinder additional development after that time. It is
expected that this system may bring locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles beginning on Tuesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route in order
to investigate the situation. The chance for formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook...MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC...
for more details."

Aqui tenemos la onda esa insignificante esa que solos dos comentábamos.. Vamos a ver que se cocina en ella.

Bueno, hay ondas que enamoran a la gente, otras que no, sobre todo cuando son muy feas o los modelos son lentos en mostrar algun tipo de desarrollo__Yo tengo la mania (siempre que pueda) de seguir cada mota de nube desde que salen de Africa, tanto en los mapas como en el satelite y les puedo decir, (aunque me puedo equivocar) que, para fines de record, a esta hora y segun los mapas y el satelite, la ondita que genero este topico se ubica a cerca de 300 millas al oeste de Don, debe pasar en hora de la tarde de manana sobre las islas y traer algo de lluvia sobre la isla para el Miercoles. Hay que seguir observando sin desanimarse__ Tenemos Ciclon, no tenemos trayectoria...nada nuevo, como siempre.

Asi es seguimos mirando mapas en la espera!!