CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Cuantas veces hemos visto esto? Jjaaa tiene varias horas de explosión y aumento en tronadas y de momento PUFFFFFF se divide en 2. Obviamente pulseo para ver cuál centro dominará. So...............

Ahora es q viene con furia! Pero lejos se va!

Ojalá pase a 5 millas al Norte de PR......

Saludos amigos, el 94l pasa por un buen momento a esta hora. Veremos si se mueve mas a la izquierda de lo pronosticado.

Wepaaaa
Tropical Depression #Four Advisory 1: New Tropical Depression Forms In The Atlantic. go.usa.gov/W3H

Villafañe wrote:Saludos amigos, el 94l pasa por un buen momento a esta hora. Veremos si se mueve mas a la izquierda de lo pronosticado.

Saludos Villafane:

Por aqui dando una visita al Invest 94, por primera ocasion. Se ve de lo mas bien a esta hora.

TD 4...... 11 PM .....


000
WTNT34 KNHC 060232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...
...NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 38.4W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 38.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward
speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is not currently expected to become a tropical storm.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

DT4

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060232
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017

The low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands has a
well-defined circulation based on a combination of surface
observations and scatterometer data. In addition, there has been a
persistent area of convection west of the center for the past 12 h
or so. Based on these, advisories are initiated on the system as a
tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt based
on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

Experimental multispectral imagery shows a large area of dry and
dusty air over the Atlantic near and east of the depression, and it
appears likely this will entrain into the circulation during the
next couple of days. The large-scale models forecast the system to
dissipate very quickly due to this entrainment, while in contrast
the statistical-dynamical guidance forecasts modest strengthening.
Another factor is that the current environment of light to moderate
easterly shear is expected to become moderate to strong
southwesterly shear at about 48 h. As a compromise between the
extremes in the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength for 48 h, followed by the system degenerating
to a remnant low by 72 h.

The initial motion is 290/12. The depression is on the south side
of a strong low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer
the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward for the next 5 days.
There should be an increase in forward speed during the next 24
h, with some decrease in forward speed after 72 h as the system
approaches a weakness in the ridge. The forecast track lies close
to the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 38.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.4N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.2N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.5N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 63.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 24.5N 68.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

ROCKstormSJ4315 wrote:

Villafañe wrote:Saludos amigos, el 94l pasa por un buen momento a esta hora. Veremos si se mueve mas a la izquierda de lo pronosticado.

Saludos Villafane:

Por aqui dando una visita al Invest 94, por primera ocasion. Se ve de lo mas bien a esta hora.

Saludos ROCKstorm, buen ojo la declararon DT4.