CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Bueno, todavia algunos pensamos que las condiciones climaticas de noviembre, podrian dar la ultima sorpresa con un "Reverse Storm".

Esta area, aunque con poca probabilidad, podria ser.

Aqui la ultima informacion del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system while it drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain"

Saludos ROCKstormSJ4315, si, definitivamente este es un cadidato para el "reverse storm" o el famoso zurdo, algunos modelos en sus corridas lo sugieren, pero hay mucha incertidumbre, a las 12z de hoy las corridas del GFS y CMC son interesantes, pero en diferentes soluciones lo mismo en tiempo, intensidad y trayectoria.

GFS



CMC

Esto subio a 50% a 5 dias.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development of this system while it drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

Los modelos aliniandose en un evento de un sistema zurdo desde el oeste del Caribe, veremos el timing.

Villafañe wrote:Los modelos aliniandose en un evento de un sistema zurdo desde el oeste del Caribe, veremos el timing.

Saludos Villafane:

Parece que somos los unicos comentando, por el momento, sobre este sistema que pudiera ser un "Reverse Storm".

Aqui la ultima informacion del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain"

La ultima informacion del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart"

estamos aqui

Continúan los modelos desarrollando a Otto, lo que si es que no se ponen de acuerdo en la intensidad y posible trayectoria, veremos que pasara en los próximos días.

GFS, Europeo y CMC pronostican a Otto pero difieren mucho en cuanto a la trayectoria.

GFS 12z


Europeo 12z


CMC 12z

El GFS es muchísimo más lento, lo pone al Sur de Haití el 27, mientras el Europeo y el CMC lo ponen en esa zona el 21. Seis días de diferencia, así que el cambia cambia será la orden del día.