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Tropical Storm Otto - It's over

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ROCKstormSJ4315
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Re: Invest 90L, Caribe Occidental, Rojo:Sube 70%-80%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Por fin da senales de movimiento. Aunque no parece que seria por mucho tiempo. Muy interesante a esta hora el "Puerto Rico - Visible Loop". No creo que sea necesario explicarlo, se explica solo.

Aqui el ultimo TWO del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity as it drifts
east-southeastward.
Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the low moves slowly and erratically. :roll:
For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan"
Last edited by ROCKstormSJ4315 on Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
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"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
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Re: Invest 90L, Caribe Occidental, Rojo:Sube 50%-70%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Hey, que este sistema anda por ahi y aun no esta claro hacia donde podria ir.

Aqui lo ultimo del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure continues over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Although the system's circulation appears to have
become a little better defined, the associated thunderstorm activity
is rather limited at this time. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly
and erratically. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area later this afternoon.
For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Invest 90L, Caribe Occidental, Rojo:Sube 70%-80%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Lo que me temia ayer cuando dije que me preocupaba la imagen del "Puerto Rico - Visible Loop". La lluvia horrible. Y me preocupa lo que esta al sur de La Espanola. Pareciera otro Low :roll:
. Si eso se mueve mas hacia RD y PR, las cosas estaran dificiles. Espero que las personas esten pendientes a las condiciones del tiempo en ambas islas.

En cuanto al Invest 90, Los dos modelos principales que yo llamo (Pimpinela), es decir el de EU-GFS y el Europeo-ECMWF, sugieren que el sistema se ira al oeste. Yo de nuevo prefiero esperar a que el sistema se forme. Por ahora, en mi caso, creo que el margen de error estadistico es alto. Obvio que para algun lado se ira virtualmente, solo que por ahora yo no apuesto a ningun modelo.

Aqui el ultimo informe de NHC en Miami:

"SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the
low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

1. Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined low-level
circulation. However, satellite images indicate that the system
currently lacks sufficient organized thunderstorm activity to be
designated as a tropical cyclone. An increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression at
any time within the next day or two while the system moves very
slowly. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Invest 90L, Caribe Occidental, Rojo:Sube 80%-90%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Bueno, a ver si mas amigos foristas se animan, ahora que parece que tiene mas posibilidades.

Aqui el ultimo TWO del NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Invest 90L, Caribe Occidental, Rojo:Sube 90%-90%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Si el ultimo TWO del NHC en Miami ocurre, estara interesante ver a donde colocan los avisos. El posible centro de desarrollo se alejo algo de Centroamerica y del movimiento (velocidad y direccion) no aparece nada en este ultimo informe. :roll:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase and become better organized over the past
several hours, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm appears
to be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will likely be issued on this disturbance later this morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Tropical Depression Sixteen, Western Caribbean

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Tenemos nueva depresion.

Aunque mayormente estacionaria, la trayectoria oficial la envia al oeste. Veremos si se sostiene.

Aqui el primer aviso sobre el sistema:

"BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the islands of San Andres
and Providencia should monitor the progress of the tropical
depression since a Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 79.4 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours,
and little movement is expected today. A slow motion toward the
west is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
Obi-Wan
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Re: Tropical Storm Otto, Western Caribbean

Post by Obi-Wan »

000
WTCA41 TJSJ 212041
TCPSP1

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECISEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL162016
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
400 PM EST LUNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

...DEPRESION SE INTENSIFICA A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OTTO...


RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 400 PM EDT...2100 UTC
------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...11.3 NORTE 79.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 190 MI...305 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA ISLA SAN ANDRES
CERCA DE 315 MI...505 KM AL ESTE DE BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA VIENTOS
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ESTACIONARIO
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARES...29.53 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias o avisos costeros en efecto.

Intereses en Nicaragua, Costa Rica, y las islas de San Andres y
Providencia deberan monitorear el progreso de Otto. Una Vigilancia
de Tormenta Tropical podria ser requerida para san Andres esta
noche o temprano el martes.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------
A las 4:00 PM EST (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Otto
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 11.3 norte, longitud 79.2
oeste. Otto esta casi estacionario y un displazamiento general hacia
el oeste se espera durante los proximos dias.

Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan a cerca de 50 mph (85 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional
durante las proximas 48 horas, y Otto podria convertirse en huracan
durante los proximos dias.

Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden a unas 35
millas (55 km) del centro.

La presion central minima estimada es de 1000 mb (29.53 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO
---------------------------------
LLUVIA: Se espera que las bandas exteriores de Otto produzcan
acumulaciones de 3 a 6 pulgadas a traves de porciones del centro y
oeste de Panama y sureste de Costa Rica hasta el miercoles, con
acumulaciones en areas aisladas de hasta 10 a 15 pulgadas a traves
del terreno mas alto. Estas lluvias pudieran resultar en
inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos que pudieran amenazar con
la vida. Lluvias fuertes adicionales podrian moverse hacia porciones
de Costa Rica el miercoles en la noche hacia el jueves a medida que
el sistema se aproxime a la costa.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa es a las 1000 PM EST.

$$

Pronosticador Pasch
Traductor Colon-Pagan
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Re: Tropical Storm Otto, Western Caribbean

Post by Villafañe »

Mas fuerte Otto.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 220245
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Deep convection continues to burst over the low-level center of
Otto. A 2329 UTC WindSat microwave overpass shows that the
inner-core structure of the small tropical cyclone has become
better organized with a low-level ring feature now evident.
Dvorak data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have increased to 3.0
and 3.5, respectively, and objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS are
3.2. These data support an initial wind speed of 50 kt, which
could be somewhat conservative.

The upper-level outflow remains well established over the western
and northern portions of the circulation but it remains restricted
to the southeast due to southeasterly shear of 15 to 20 kt. The
shear is forecast to abate a little during the next couple of days
while Otto traverses SSTs of around 29C. These conditions favor
intensification and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of the
SHIPS and LGEM models, and brings Otto to hurricane strength within
36 hours. Although the NHC forecast does not indicate strengthening
between 48 and 72 hours, Otto could become a little stronger after
48 hours and before it moves inland over Central America in about
3 days. After that time, uncertainty remains as to whether the
tropical cyclone will survive its crossing of Central America. The
NHC forecast continues to show the system as a remnant low over the
eastern Pacific, which is supported by most of the global models.

Center fixes from the microwave imagery indicate that Otto has
been drifting southward this evening. The cyclone is not expected
to move much overnight while it remains within an area of weak
steering currents. On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to
begin building to the north of the storm and Otto is forecast to
start moving slowly westward. The ridge is expected to remain in
place during the remainder of the week and Otto should continue to
move generally westward at a slightly faster pace. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between
the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, which is also near the most
recent GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 10.9N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 10.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 10.9N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 11.1N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 11.3N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z 11.3N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z 10.8N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: Hurricane Otto, Western Caribbean

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Aqui la ultima informacion del ahora Huracan Otto:

"BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...OTTO BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2016 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
San Andres Island.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Nicaragua from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nargana to Colon
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
* Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning could be required for portions of the coast of
Nicaragua or Costa Rica later tonight or early Wednesday.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island
should monitor the progress of Otto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was located
near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Otto is moving toward
the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Otto should move a little faster
toward the west or west-northwest for the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Otto is expected to approach the coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected for the
next couple of days until landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and
Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western
Panama and southern Costa Rica through Wednesday. Total rainfall
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be
expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through
Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Panama tonight and are possible in the tropical storm watch
area in Panama on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in San Andres by late Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in Nicaragua on Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along
the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Pasch"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Hurricane Otto, Western Caribbean

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

De Tormenta vuelve a Huracan en este informe del NHC rn Miami:

"BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
700 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION

...OTTO REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NE OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* San Andres
* Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Colon Panama to the Costa Rica/Panama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island
should monitor the progress of Otto.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Otto is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected for the next couple of days with an increase in speed on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Otto will move
onshore within the hurricane warning area on Thursday, and reach the
Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica early
Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before
landfall before weakening occurs over Central America after
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (15 km) from
the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts
of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and
southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will likely result
in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Outer rain bands
from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher
terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica
through today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin late tonight or Thursday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area on
the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua tonight and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 2 to 4
feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the
hurricane warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the
coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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