¡Bienvenidos a la nueva interface gráfica de CycloForums!

Invest 99L (Norte de PR)

Aquí encontrarás todo lo relacionado al la meteorología en Puerto Rico y las condiciones del tiempo actuales, así como los huracanes que se desarrollen durante las temporadas ciclónicas, actualizados por expertos y aficionados a la meteorología de todo el pais! Este es tu foro! Leelo, escribe en el y disfrútalo! Cycloman.
boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Disturbio sobre Bahamas 10%-20%

Post by boleco »

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over most of the Bahamas and adjacent waters of the
western Atlantic and the Florida Straits. Environmental conditions
are currently unfavorable for any significant development to occur,
but they could become more conducive by Tuesday or Wednesday while
the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Bahamas during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Disturbio sobre Bahamas 10%-20%

Post by boleco »

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO TROPICAL
EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

Para el Atlantico Norte...Mar Caribe y Golfo de Mexico:

Un area amplia de nubosidad y aguaceros desorganizados localizada
sobre las Bahamas y las aguas adyacentes del oeste del Atlantico
esta asociada a una vaguada en la superficie que interactua con una
baja presion en los niveles altos. Las condiciones ambientales estan
actualmente desfavorables para que ocurra algun desarrollo
significativo, pero podria tornarse mas favorables para el
desarrollo de ciclon tropical o subtropical el martes o miercoles
cuando el sistema se mueva hacia el norte o norte-noreoste.
Independientemente de desarrollo, lluvias localmente fuertes seran
posibles sobre las Bahamas durante los proximos dias.
* Potencial de formacion hasta 48 horas...bajo...20 por ciento
* Potencial de formacion hasta 5 dias...mediano...40 por ciento
User avatar
ROCKstormSJ4315
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Disturbio sobre Bahamas 10%-20%

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Hace varios dias que tambien vengo siguiendo esta noticia, mas bien por el posible evento de lluvia para PR en algun momento de esta semana, que fue el origen de este topico.

No obstante, algo aqui no me cuadra aun. Lo que habia entendido es que: " A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with an upper-level low (TWO del NHC)" y "...and another surface low across the southwestern Caribbean will cause a southeast low level wind flow across the forecast area starting on Monday and lasting until until at least Thursday (TWO, NWS-SJ)".

En otras palabras una compleja interaccion entre dos sistemas, si asi se le puede llamar, uno por el NO y otro por el SO, no solamente el de Bahamas.

Sigo sumando a la confusion cuando leo en el TWD del NHC lo siguinete: "...but they could become more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation by Tuesday or Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward..." No obstante, el TWO de la oficina local del NWS dice:"... However, the ridge is expected to erode rapidly on Tuesday as an upper level low moves close to the region. A surface low over Bahamas and another surface low across the southwestern Caribbean will cause a southeast low level wind flow across the forecast area starting on Monday and lasting until until at least Thursday..."

Esto para mi no esta del todo claro.

A continuacion ambos informes:

NHC, Miami:


"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nicole, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over
the Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with
a surface trough that is interacting with an upper-level low.
Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for significant
development, but they could become more conducive for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation by Tuesday or Wednesday when the
system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Pasch"

NWS, San Juan Office:


"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
915 PM AST Sun Oct 16 2016

.UPDATE...Shower and thunderstorm activity developed by mid
afternoon across central interior and western Puerto Rico. Several
Special Weather Statements due to thunderstorms and frequent
lightning and a Flood Advisory were issued for some municipalitiesacross
those sections of Puerto Rico. However, this activity dissipated
rapidly around sunset. Not significant precipitation was detected
across the U.S. Virgin islands.

Similar weather conditions are expected to continue across the
region for Monday as an upper level ridge continues as the main
weather feature across the area. However, the ridge is expected to
erode rapidly on Tuesday as an upper level low moves close to the
region. A surface low over Bahamas and another surface low
across the southwestern Caribbean will cause a southeast low level
wind flow across the forecast area starting on Monday and lasting
until until at least Thursday. This shift in wind direction will
also cause deep tropical moisture to move into the area from the
south Wednesday and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is
then expected to encompass the region both days".

"...PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 145 PM AST Sun Oct 16 2016/

...The overall moisture is expected to remain constant today with a
precipitable water value of around 1.7 inches but is expected to
decrease slightly overnight and Monday as a patch of even drier
air is expected to move in from the south as the winds change to a
southerly direction. However, moisture is expected to increase
significantly starting on Tuesday as the expected SSE winds will
pull moisture from the south and into our local area. this is due
to a SFC low which is expected to develop over Hispaniola into
southern Bahamas or just West-Northwest of the local
islands...causing a wind shift early on Monday...continuing for
the rest of the week. This shift in wind direction will also combine
with an approaching upper low on Tuesday. This setup, if it were
to materialize, would cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm
potential over the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Having
said that, if the winds are strong, the showers and thunderstorms
may not be of long duration over the northern half of PR, so there
is uncertainty on just how much rain for the San Juan metro.
However, the southern coast of PR and the USVI may observe
persistent showers moving in from the south..."

En fin, son dos complejos sistemas los que se acercaran a PR? El area con por cientos se ira al norte o se acercara lo suficiente para afectar las condiciones de tiempo en PR antes de irse al norte?
:?
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
User avatar
Vigilante
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Disturbio sobre Bahamas 10%-20%

Post by Vigilante »

Sube a 60% en 5 días.

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
User avatar
Vigilante
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Disturbio sobre Bahamas 10%-20%

Post by Vigilante »

Ya es invest 99L.
AL, 99, 2016101718, 22 Norte, 72.5 Oeste, 25 mph, 1008 mb.
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
User avatar
Vigilante
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L al Norte de La Española 20%-60%

Post by Vigilante »

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Invest 99L al Norte de La Española 20%-60%

Post by boleco »

este deja mucha lluvia miren el satelite la nube que se estan desarollando al sur en el mar caribe subiendo para la isla
Image
categoria5
Onda Tropical
Onda Tropical
Posts: 46
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:33 am

Re: Invest 99L al Norte de La Española 20%-60%

Post by categoria5 »

:geek: :geek: :geek: QUE HAY CON INVEST 99L :?: :?: :geek: :geek: :geek:
User avatar
Vigilante
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L afectando a Puerto Rico (40%-70%)

Post by Vigilante »

Se emitió una advertencia de inundaciones costeras para el Norte, noreste y noroeste de Puerto Rico. La foto es desde Ocean Park.

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
User avatar
Vigilante
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:16 pm
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L afectando a Puerto Rico (40%-70%)

Post by Vigilante »

Modelo NAM 06z, también muestra mucha actividad de lluvia en República Dominicana de miércoles a jueves, como consecuencia del desarrollo del invest 99L.


Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Post Reply