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Invest 99L (Norte de PR)

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Joe Man
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Re: Invest 99L afectando a Puerto Rico (40%-70%)

Post by Joe Man »

al parecer vamos a estar mojados unos cuantos dias!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
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ROCKstormSJ4315
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Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Invest 99L afectando a Puerto Rico (40%-70%)

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Vigilante wrote:Modelo NAM 06z, también muestra mucha actividad de lluvia en República Dominicana de miércoles a jueves, como consecuencia del desarrollo del invest 99L.


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Sigo pensando que lo que nos esta afectando es lo mas cercano a un sancocho, con una receta que ni se entiende. El Invest es uno de mas de tres ingredientes que son los que estan generando la lluvia que podriamos tener por muchos dias. Para mi lo mas significativo del Invest 99L es el efecto en las marejadas. Impresionante foto de esas marejadas en el Condado. Creo que manana me doy la vuelta por el Condado. Se Adelanto la famosa Marejada de los Muertos.

No creo en los modelos, pero la imagen que presenta el companero Vigilante con el NAM, por primera occasion en mucho tiempo, me llamo la atencion esa corrida de un modelo. Miren el Low que desarrolla al SO de PR. No me llamo la atencion necesariamente porque este ahi en el modelo, es que si uno mira la carretera de humedad que hay al SO de PR, no me extranaria que veamos un posible disturbio al SO de PR moviendose al NE (Reverse Storm) :twisted: . Ojala y no pase, es lo unico que nos faltaria para estar sin energia electrica meses.

A continuacion el "sancocho climatologico" segun el ultimo informe de la oficina local del National Weather Service en Carolina:

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
240 PM AST Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Heavy showers from a band of moisture will pull to
the northwest tomorrow night, but scattered shower activity will
continue in east to southeast flow through Saturday night. Then
winds will shift to the northeast as a trough extends up through
the Leeward islands and moves toward the local area during the
week with very good moisture.

At upper levels...a ridge extended over the local area from the
southwest will shift west by Saturday and then retreat into the
Caribbean as a short wave trough moves through the area Monday
night leaving northwest flow over the area for the rest of next
week.

At mid levels...a vigorous low is over the Bahama Islands while
high pressure can be seen northeast of the Leeward Islands through
Thursday. Then the ridge moves over the local area from the east
and slowly drifts northwest through the weekend. Light northwest
flow continues through much of the rest of next week.

At lower levels...Low pressure north of Hispaniola is pulling up a
band of moisture over the local area, but mostly Puerto Rico,
that will begin to pull northwest Wednesday night as flow goes
from south to southeast. High pressure at the surface will ridge
just north of the local area beginning on Thursday and then join
up with a high over Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday, but by
Tuesday another trough will extend north over the U.S. Virgin
Islands through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Heavy rain in the southwest has caused the
Hormigueros river to exceed flood stage of 20 feet and more heavy
showers are on the way extending across much of south Puerto Rico.
Although a few showers--some heavy--are east of Puerto Rico and
across Saint Thomas, in general The U.S. Virgin Islands remain
outside of the area of influence of the band of convergence extending
in a spiral fashion out of the low north of Hispaniola. This band
is expected to continue throwing showers and thunderstorms north
and northeast over Puerto Rico but should move westward later on
Wednesday. Although no major systems will subsequently affect
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and moisture will reach a
minimum Friday afternoon and Sunday, moisture levels in general
are good and scattered showers will continue throughout the next
10 days with heavier showers during the afternoons in the downwind
corners.

&&

.AVIATION...An area of low pressure north of La Hispaniola is
bringing a moist southerly flow across the flying area of Puerto
Rico. SHRA/TSRA will continue to move from the Mona Passage into
mainland PR for the next 6-12 hours. This will result in MVFR conds
with possible tempo IFR across the western and southern
terminals. Mtn top obscurations and frequent lighting are expected
with this activity. Similar conds could spread in the next few
hours to TJSJ and TIST. VFR elsewhere. Low level winds will
continue S-SW at 10-15 kts...turning more S-SE after 19/06z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas continue generally in the 9 to 10 foot range at the
outer buoy 41043, and conditions of 7 to 8 feet have been seen at
the Rincon buoy, generating a high risk of rip currents, minor
coastal flooding and high surf to the northern coasts. Conditions
will begin to subside Wednesday and small craft advisories are
expected to be gone by Thursday afternoon, not to return until
after Wednesday of next week."

Creo que entiendo mejor la formula de la Teoria de la Relatividad de Albert Einstein. :lol:

Pendiente a esa lluvia tan cerca de PR y RD.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Zeus_PR
Invest
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Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:43 am
Location: Guaynabo PR

Re: Invest 99L afectando a Puerto Rico (40%-70%)

Post by Zeus_PR »

Lluvia acercandose al area metro.

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