Re: Onda al Este de las Antillas 10/20%
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:06 am
2am
Invest 98L
Invest 98L
CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología
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Huracan Cat 4 Nicole hacia Bermuda
https://huracanespr.net/cycloforums/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3342395
Page 2 of 4
Re: Invest 98L (40%-40%) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:12 pm
Curiosamente el americano esta rogando pq este Invest se desarrolle, puede debilitar la alta presion y alejar al temible de Matthew de la costa este de los Estados Unidos.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:01 pm
Tormenta Tropical Nicole
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016
...NEW TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 60.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 60.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward
the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016
...NEW TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 60.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 60.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward
the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:01 pm
Nicole
At 11am
At 11am
Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:03 pm
Nicole
At 11am
At 11am
Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:31 pm
De esta, no comente nada, pero siempre supe que se iba a desarrollar en un ciclon. 
Bueno...no siempre.
Si, desde el momento que empezo a aumentar la vorticidad cientos de millas al este de Barlovento mientra se desplazaba hacia el oeste y luego se mantuvo majomenos estacionaria por algun tiempo.
Un momento!__Buscamos la razon de este frenazo...una vaguada lo comenzo a halar hacia el norte...para el Caribe, ni de turista!
De ahi en mas era simple el pronostico, aplicamos la consabida formula: "trayectoria sin sistema...sistema sin trayectoria" Si se va es que habra ciclon...no hay de otra!__Efectivamente...ahi tenemos a Nicole, una tormenta que, de momento es una de las mas feas de la temporada, no me apena decirlo y a quien le deseamos la mejor de las suertes.
Bueno...no siempre.
Si, desde el momento que empezo a aumentar la vorticidad cientos de millas al este de Barlovento mientra se desplazaba hacia el oeste y luego se mantuvo majomenos estacionaria por algun tiempo.
Un momento!__Buscamos la razon de este frenazo...una vaguada lo comenzo a halar hacia el norte...para el Caribe, ni de turista!
De ahi en mas era simple el pronostico, aplicamos la consabida formula: "trayectoria sin sistema...sistema sin trayectoria" Si se va es que habra ciclon...no hay de otra!__Efectivamente...ahi tenemos a Nicole, una tormenta que, de momento es una de las mas feas de la temporada, no me apena decirlo y a quien le deseamos la mejor de las suertes.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:39 pm
Y ahora ya si tiene forma de ciclón..ojo y todo, que mucho me alegra
Re: Hurricane Nicole
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:00 pm
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering
motion is forecast tonight and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT35 KNHC 061743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering
motion is forecast tonight and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: Huracán Nicole al Norte de Puerto Rico
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:03 pm
Los modelos GFDL y HWRF bajan significativamente al Huracán Nicole. El GFDL es más dramático y lo baja hasta República Dominicana.
GFDL:
HWRF:
GFDL:
HWRF:
Re: Huracán Nicole al Norte de Puerto Rico
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:09 pm
