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Huracan Cat 4 Nicole hacia Bermuda

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StormWatch
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Re: Onda al Este de las Antillas 10/20%

Post by StormWatch »

2am

Invest 98L

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Obi-Wan
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Re: Invest 98L (40%-40%) al noreste del Caribe

Post by Obi-Wan »

Curiosamente el americano esta rogando pq este Invest se desarrolle, puede debilitar la alta presion y alejar al temible de Matthew de la costa este de los Estados Unidos.
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe

Post by StormWatch »

Tormenta Tropical Nicole

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

...NEW TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 60.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 60.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward
the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe

Post by StormWatch »

Nicole
At 11am

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3721
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe

Post by StormWatch »

Nicole
At 11am

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
David.79
Depresión Tropical
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Posts: 410
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:29 am

Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe

Post by David.79 »

De esta, no comente nada, pero siempre supe que se iba a desarrollar en un ciclon. :roll:

Bueno...no siempre.
Si, desde el momento que empezo a aumentar la vorticidad cientos de millas al este de Barlovento mientra se desplazaba hacia el oeste y luego se mantuvo majomenos estacionaria por algun tiempo.
Un momento!__Buscamos la razon de este frenazo...una vaguada lo comenzo a halar hacia el norte...para el Caribe, ni de turista!

De ahi en mas era simple el pronostico, aplicamos la consabida formula: "trayectoria sin sistema...sistema sin trayectoria" Si se va es que habra ciclon...no hay de otra!__Efectivamente...ahi tenemos a Nicole, una tormenta que, de momento es una de las mas feas de la temporada, no me apena decirlo y a quien le deseamos la mejor de las suertes.
David.79
Depresión Tropical
Depresión Tropical
Posts: 410
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:29 am

Re: Tormenta Tropical Nicole (Invest 98L) al noreste del Caribe

Post by David.79 »

Y ahora ya si tiene forma de ciclón..ojo y todo, que mucho me alegra :roll:
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Joe Man
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Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:32 pm

Re: Hurricane Nicole

Post by Joe Man »

000
WTNT35 KNHC 061743
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering
motion is forecast tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Alberto
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Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:40 pm

Re: Huracán Nicole al Norte de Puerto Rico

Post by Alberto »

Los modelos GFDL y HWRF bajan significativamente al Huracán Nicole. El GFDL es más dramático y lo baja hasta República Dominicana.

GFDL:
Image


HWRF:
Image
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Vigilante
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Re: Huracán Nicole al Norte de Puerto Rico

Post by Vigilante »

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
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