Huracan Cat 4 Nicole hacia Bermuda

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

El ultimo boletin del NHC en Miami:

"BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

...NICOLE NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 65.4W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 65.4 West. Nicole is
currently stationary, but a slow generally northward motion is
expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A combination of swells associated with Nicole and Post-
Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect Bermuda during the
next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf
conditions.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain"

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

TWD de las 11 AM, NHC en Miami:

"TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Overnight microwave data indicated that Nicole had formed a
well-defined low- to mid-level eye, embedded within a significant
convective burst. Since then, the shear has caused the new
convective growth to diminish and pushed the coldest cloud tops
south of the low-level center. Satellite classifications are T3.0
and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used
to set the initial intensity estimate to 50 kt.

Nicole appears to have drifted southeastward during the last
several hours, but is now essentially stationary. The blocking
ridge north of Nicole has begun to shift eastward, which should
cause the cyclone to begin a slow motion, generally toward the
north. Variations in the orientation and strength of this ridge in
the GFS and ECMWF solutions result in either a north-northeastward
or north-northwestward motion, respectively, during the next couple
of days, and these differences could have implications on Nicole's
track longer term. A turn toward the northeast is expected late in
the period when Nicole reaches the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
split in the track guidance over the forecast period is notable
this cycle, with the ECMWF and all but a few of its 0000 UTC
ensemble members even or left of the previous forecast track. All of
the other track guidance is to the east, including the GFS which is
the rightmost of the members in this camp. The new forecast track
is very near the previous one in deference to the ECMWF and its
ensemble output even though the model consensus aids are to the
east through 96 hours.

The strong northerly shear over Nicole has marginally decreased
since yesterday, but is forecast to remain at about the same
magnitude for another 24 hours. The shear should then gradually
diminish until about day 3, and Nicole is likely to find itself in
the lowest-shear environment it has seen in several days. Since
the cyclone will be over anomalously warm waters at that time, in a
moist environment and under a somewhat diffluent flow aloft,
intensification seems likely. The intensity forecast is increased
over the previous one and is slightly above the multi-model
consensus. It should be noted that the global models show
significant deepening of Nicole starting around this time,
potentially much more than what is indicated in this forecast.
Southwesterly shear should greatly increase by day 4, which could
curb any additional intensification after that time unless the
cyclone's intensification is being driven by baroclinic forcing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.0N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.1N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 27.0N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.6N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.8N 64.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 34.9N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain"

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

De la oficina local del NWS en Carolina:

El Update parece ser mas benevolo que la "discusion" de la madrugada.

"FXCA62 TJSJ 091550
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1150 AM AST SUN OCT 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands today.
Showers affected the eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, in addition a brief shower moved across the west
coast late this morning. The strongest showers moved across St
Thomas and St Croix. Under the southerly wind flow and above
normal moisture, expect showers and possibly thunderstorms from
time to time across the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well across the
Southern Slopes of the Cordillera Central of PR. Also, late
convection is expected across the Northern coastal sections of PR.
However, mid to upper level clouds may limit the shower and
thunderstorm coverage over mainland Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA with Psbl isold TSRA expected to continue over
TIST/TISX/TJSJ btwn 09/15z-22z. Therefore, MVFR or brief IFR conds
are expected thru this period. In addition, aft convection may
be delay due to a mid to upper level clouds, but still expecting
mtn obsc and SHRA/TSRA across the Cordillera Central and impacting
the flying area of TJBQ/TJPS. Winds are expected from the S to SW
around 10 knots becoming calm to light and variable aft 09/22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions will continue with seas below 5 feet
and winds around 15 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM AST SUN OCT 9 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave over Hispaniola will continue to move
westward and away from the local islands today. An upper level trough
will move over the region on Monday, maintaining a relatively wet
weather pattern across the region. Tropical Storm Nicole will
remain near stationary north of the local area through early next
week before move to the north-northeast over the Central North
Atlantic.

DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms mostly across the surrounding coastal
waters, with few of them affecting the eastern and southeastern
sections of Puerto Rico overnight. Several Flood advisories were
issued for coastal municipalities across eastern, southern and
southeastern Puerto Rico. Under a south southeast wind flow most
of this activity dissipated or moved to the Atlantic coastal
waters by early in the morning. The overnight shower and
thunderstorm activity was associated with the moisture left
behind the tropical wave now across Hispaniola.

Some moisture associated with the ample circulation of Tropical
Storm Nicole, north of the region is expected to combine with
lingering moisture behind the tropical wave, daytime heating and
local effects to produce a new round of showers and thunderstorms
just along and north of Cordillera Central this afternoon and
evening. This will lead to periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall and possibly minor urban and small stream flooding.

An upper level trough is expected to move over the Northeast
Caribbean on Monday. This feature is expected to maintain a
relatively wet weather pattern across the region for the next
several days.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR but periods of SHRA/Isold TSRA en route
to Nrn Leeward Islands and USVI FM eastern PR terminals thru 09/14z.
SHRA and isolated TSRA expected to continue over the ATLC waters and
local Passages thru Sunday evening. Btwn 09/16z-09/22z, SHRA/TSRA
fcst to develop along and north of the mtn ranges of PR. Impacting
the flying area of TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mtn top obscr and MVFR conds
expected. Light southerly winds will continue at SFC...incr 5-15 kt
from the WSW aft 09/14z.

MARINE...Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to send moderate
swells across the local Atlantic waters during the next few days.
Seas are expected to build to 5-7 feet across the local Atlantic
waters between Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere...seas of 3-5 feet
expected through the forecast period.

[Obi-Wan]

Bella Nicole como Cat 4 con un ojo increíble que se aprecia en las imagenes de satélite!

[Vigilante]

[Vigilante]

Solo en 7 ocasiones Bermudas ha sido impactada por un huracán intenso. Nicole sería el octavo, pero posiblemente como categoría 3.

[Joe Man]

a lo mejor se lo chupa el misterioso triangulo de las Bermudas y la desaparece a otra dimension.