Re: El Nino se fue / La Nina esta presente
Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:21 pm
Saludos ROCK,Abito y demas foristas.
Boletin mensual de Diciembre de CPC.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
08 December 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during January-March 2017.
La Niña conditions persisted during November, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies present across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The Niño indices remained negative during November, except for the Niño1+2 index which reflected near-average SSTs in the extreme eastern Pacific late in the month [Fig. 2]. Also, the upper-ocean heat content remained below average [Fig. 3] in association with cooler temperatures at depth [Fig. 4], although this cooling lessened somewhat during the month. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds remained enhanced in the west-central tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the tropical Pacific. However, these signals were masked at times by intra-seasonal activity. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system during November reflected a continuation of weak La Niña conditions.
The multi-model averages favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index ≤ -0.5°C) to continue through December - February (DJF) 2016-17 [Fig. 6]. Given the current conditions and the model forecasts, the forecaster consensus also favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through DJF 2016-17. In summary, La Niña conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during January - March 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (NOAA's 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday December 15th). The current seasonal outlook for DJF 2016-17 favors above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
Boletin mensual de Diciembre de CPC.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
08 December 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during January-March 2017.
La Niña conditions persisted during November, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies present across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The Niño indices remained negative during November, except for the Niño1+2 index which reflected near-average SSTs in the extreme eastern Pacific late in the month [Fig. 2]. Also, the upper-ocean heat content remained below average [Fig. 3] in association with cooler temperatures at depth [Fig. 4], although this cooling lessened somewhat during the month. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds remained enhanced in the west-central tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the tropical Pacific. However, these signals were masked at times by intra-seasonal activity. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system during November reflected a continuation of weak La Niña conditions.
The multi-model averages favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index ≤ -0.5°C) to continue through December - February (DJF) 2016-17 [Fig. 6]. Given the current conditions and the model forecasts, the forecaster consensus also favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through DJF 2016-17. In summary, La Niña conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during January - March 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (NOAA's 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday December 15th). The current seasonal outlook for DJF 2016-17 favors above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml